INDIANAPOLIS — For the past two months, it has felt inevitable the Jets and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick would reach an agreement on a new contract before free agency begins March 9. But the Fitzpatrick contract may not be so easy.
Ask coaches, executives and agents at the NFL Scouting Combine about Fitzpatrick’s value and you will get a variety of opinions. Some point to his 2015 season, when he threw for a team-record 31 touchdowns and led the most prolific offense in Jets history. Others point to his history as a journeyman and say 2015 was an anomaly, using the final game of the season in Buffalo, when he was intercepted three times in the loss that kept the Jets out of the playoffs, as evidence he will revert to the turnover-prone quarterback he has been during his career.
So, how do you evaluate a 33-year-old coming off a career year if you are Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan? Do you believe the chemistry offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker had with Fitzpatrick will continue? If so, at what price?
The market value of Fitzpatrick’s contract also is tough to figure out. There basically are two classes of starting quarterback contracts in the NFL — those still on their rookie contracts and those who have signed veteran deals. Nearly all of the veteran starters make $16 million per year and up. Could Fitzpatrick’s agents point to that and say that is what he wants? That seems extremely high, but they may argue if the Jets believe Fitzpatrick is their starter for the immediate future, he should be paid like the other veterans around the league.
The website Spotrac.com, which analyzes contracts, projects Fitzpatrick’s average annual value at $11 million, but predicts he only will get $8 million per year.
Broncos vice president of football operations and general manager John Elway talked about how there is no middle range of salaries for quarterbacks this week. He faces a similar problem with what to pay pending free agent Brock Osweiler.
“That’s the hard part,” Elway said on Pro Football Talk. “When you look at where the salaries are on quarterbacks, either above $15 million or below $5 [million]. There’s no middle class of quarterbacks.”
There are a few outliers, like Tom Brady, whose team-friendly deal averages $9 million per year, or players who were coming off poor seasons like Brian Hoyer ($5.25 million) or Josh McCown ($4.6 million). But Fitzpatrick is coming off a monster season.
“You have to pay him,” one league source said. “That was the best offense the Jets ever had.”
ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, who worked in the front office of the Redskins and Eagles, disagrees.
“You’re not paying him for what he did last year,” Riddick said. “This is about future performance production always when you’re talking about contracts, and with him it’s no different. For them, the question would be in turn to go back to his agent and say, ‘Oh what, do you think you can do it again?’ It’s great that he did it, but clearly I don’t think they’re going to think he can sustain that level. They’re not trying to pay him for what he did last year.”
One agent suggested the Jets design an incentive-filled contract that would pay Fitzpatrick more if he gets the team to the playoffs or hits statistical marks.
If the Jets don’t give Fitzpatrick a contract offer he finds fair, would he test free agency? He has said he wants to return to the Jets. He likes being back with Gailey. He has moved his wife and five kids three times in the past three years as he bounced from Buffalo to Tennessee to Houston to New York. He has indicated he does not really want to do that again, but it may be the way he lands the most lucrative deal.
The quarterback free-agency market is extremely thin this year. If the Broncos re-sign Osweiler, as they are expected to, the top of the quarterback market would be Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins and Sam Bradford.
“He knows that that’s the best place for him, especially that relationship with Chan,” Riddick said. “You don’t want to mess those kinds of things up and wind up cutting off your nose to spite your face. You don’t want to do that and I think Ryan at this point in his career knows that this is where I need to be. If they need him to hold down the fort for another year or however long it takes to get that next guy, then ultimately that’s what his role will be.”