Few practices are more futile — and as consistently wrong — as declaring offseason winners and losers.
Combine lack of perspective with a proclivity to hail the teams that spent the most money, made the boldest moves and secured the most famous names and you get a formula as reliable as Johnny Manziel.
So let’s do something potentially more valuable — evaluate an offseason since which enough time has passed that we can better glean success, failure and, perhaps, lessons by looking back three years:
1. I am a players’ guy, and believe they should get whatever a free market bears. However, if you were ever looking to demonstrate how inefficient big-dollar free agency is, the 2012-13 offseason might be your standard.
Of the 10 largest contracts signed that offseason, five were so regrettable, the players were either salary- dumped in trades or released (Josh Hamilton, Melvin Upton Jr., Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Edwin Jackson).
There were four other deals you could argue the signing team regrets. Anibal Sanchez (five years, $80 million) and Angel Pagan (four years, $40 million) performed well, but were often injured in the first two years of the deal and not very good last year. Hyun-jin Ryu (six years, $36 million) was good his first two years, but missed all of last year. Shane Victorino (three years, $39 million) was so valuable in his first season to the champion Red Sox, perhaps it was tolerable that he was injured and/or ineffective afterward before being traded last July to the Angels.
So nine of the 10 top contracts were either horrible or at least dubious. What about the 10th?
2. Glad you asked. That was the six-year, $147 million deal the Dodgers had with Zack Greinke. But it is good because we know Greinke outperformed the $76 million he was paid over three years before opting out this offseason.
The Dodgers are being widely criticized for not paying what was necessary to outbid the Diamondbacks (six years, $206.5 million) to retain Greinke. Thus, even the lone big contract that worked out that offseason has drawn wide rebuke. Maybe the opt-outs that are viewed as player-friendly actually are team-friendly — as long as the teams let the players walk away.
3. Greinke, Ryu and J.P. Howell (three years, $14.25 million) made the Dodgers winners that offseason. But the two biggest winners were teams that didn’t make huge splashes, but rather spread their money around.
The Red Sox famously did that. Their largest outlay was for Victorino, and they did shorter deals with key players to a championship, such as Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, Stephen Drew and David Ross. The Pirates signed Russell Martin, Jason Grilli and Franicsco Liriano for a combined $24.75 million with no commitment for more than two years. Their ability to stay disciplined and find bargains has been one of the keys to making the playoffs the past three years.
The Yankees did well with three one-year contracts with players they knew wanted to stay — Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda. They did horribly with a two-year deal for Ichiro Suzuki and one year for Kevin Youkilis. The Mets signed one major league free agent — a forgettable one-year, $4 million deal with Shaun Marcum.
4. The Blue Jays were viewed as winners that offseason because they obtained a package of players from the Marlins that included Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, who were signed as free agents the previous offseason when Miami was viewed as winners. Toronto also landed the reigning NL Cy Young winner, R.A. Dickey, from the Mets. But we see more fully now what it costs them — Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard.
The other team praised for its trading acumen that offseason was the Rays because they were able to get Wil Myers and three other prospects while dealing two veteran pitchers, notably James Shields.
Well, again a few years’ perspective reveals something else from the immediate snapshot. The Royals won that trade because Shields was key to turning around the Royals’ culture, but mainly because the seeming throw-in to the deal, Wade Davis, has turned out to be arguably the best reliever in the majors and a championship closer.
Myers never fulfilled his promise with the Rays and was redirected to the Padres. One of three other minor leaguers, Jake Odorizzi, has turned out to be a strong part of Tampa Bay’s rotation.
Who takes plunge on post-surgery Tim Lincecum?
Sometime later this month, Tim Lincecum will get to show how much Freak he has left.
Linceum underwent a surgery in early September for a hip impingement — similar to a procedure once had by Alex Rodriguez — by the doctor who performed A-Rod’s surgery, Marc Philippon. His agent, Rick Thurman, said Lincecum already is throwing off a mound, has total stability in his hips and is ahead of his rehab schedule.
The next step is for Lincecum to have a showcase later this month in Scottsdale, Ariz., to provide some insight to interested teams into how the righty is doing. A large majority of clubs have at least checked in with Lincecum’s representatives to get a feel for his progress.
Lincecum won the Cy Young in 2008 and ’09, but he has faltered over the past four seasons, going 39-42 with a 4.68 ERA. He has only played for the Giants, but they have signed Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija this offseason. So it is more likely he will move on as teams assess whether the hip surgery allows Lincecum, still just 31, to approximate his old self.
Mark Buehrle leaning toward retirement
What if there was a lefty free agent known for his durability and competitiveness who was coming off a 15-win season in which his ERA was league average at worst (factoring in ballpark and league) for the 14th time in 16 years? What if that lefty didn’t come with draft pick compensation tied to him and probably needed no more than a one-year deal to sign?
Well, there is such a guy, but as of now, Mark Buehrle is leaning toward not playing in 2016, though he is not yet ready to announce his retirement.
If this really is the end for Buehrle, he was kind of the pitching Torii Hunter (who has retired) — above average and consistent for a long period. Buehrle would join other very good starters who have announced their retirement this winter, such as A.J. Burnett, Dan Haren and Tim Hudson.