John Podhoretz

John Podhoretz

Politics

Republicans are practically handing Hillary the presidency

It’s possible Hillary Clinton clinched the November election Tuesday night — and not because of her victories, but because the Republican Party is likely to be hit by a maelstrom in a few months that will redound to her benefit.

John Kasich’s victory in Ohio has made Donald Trump’s path to the Republican nomination vastly more complicated, despite the fact that Trump had yet another stunning night.

It’s mathematically impossible for Kasich to win the nomination, but his appeal to Republican moderates might allow him to eat away at Trump here and there and thereby serve as a key factor in denying The Donald a victory on the first ballot at the GOP convention in July.

Ted Cruz won enough delegates Tuesday to continue to make the argument that he is the only other candidate who can win outright. But Cruz has to build on his narrow base of very conservative voters if he is to have any hope of catching up to Trump and then lapping him. There was no evidence of this Tuesday night at the ballot box or in his speech, which featured Cruz throwing the same red meat he always throws.

Cruz didn’t have a good night, and it’s late in the process for a possible nominee to go through a multistate primary without winning a single one. Meanwhile, Trump romped in Florida and Illinois, won by a small margin in North Carolina and was looking like the winner in Missouri.

So Trump continues to be strong but not quite strong enough. Cruz is in second but he isn’t gaining strength. Kasich can’t win but can really gum up the works for Trump in various places. And so it may go henceforth. Which means chaos is coming.

How so? If Cruz doesn’t charge but Trump doesn’t build and Kasich takes a bit here and there, Trump will end the primary season short of the 1,237 delegates he would need to secure the nomination on the first ballot in Cleveland.

The question will be, how short? If he is a few hundred delegates away, the case can and will be made that he had his shot to consolidate his victory in the primaries, failed to do so, and is too divisive and dangerous a figure to be nominated. Once the first ballot is done, the delegates are basically let loose.

This is the goal of the crowd that’s come to be known as “Never Trump.”

Now, it would be easier to see this working if Cruz were building up a head of steam, or if Kasich showed any ability to win outside the state of which he is governor. That’s why it’s critical for Cruz to turn on the juice somehow, and fast. If he doesn’t, what then?

Then Trump will likely end up 100 delegates away, or 75, or 50. In that case, the Never Trumpers will not relent, especially if polling by July shows Hillary Clinton winning by 10 or 15 points.

Trump will take neither scenario ­lying down. And in the latter case, he will have an awfully strong point.

And he would surely play his “I won fair and square even if I didn’t get 1,237” card in the ugliest possible way. If you think a guy who enjoys protesters getting punched at his rallies is not going to threaten riots, fistfights and World Wrestling Entertainment behavior if he doesn’t get what he wants, you haven’t been watching.

If he doesn’t get the nomination, he’ll vow to block the GOP nominee. If he does, millions of Republicans will stay home.

If the GOP convention descends into this kind of chaos, and a month later Hillary is coronated in a stately, sobering, beautifully stage-managed three days of joy, the contrast will be sobering. The American people do not like chaos. The Trump disruption machine is on the way to crashing and burning the GOP.