Stephen Drew and Daniel Murphy have a season within this season. Even if the second basemen were putting their New York teams first, they still had to be looking out for No. 1.
But they are having weak campaigns in their walk years, to the point that the clock is ticking on them even holding their current jobs, much less positioning well for a next employer.
This is actually Drew’s third straight walk year, his third attempt to convince the industry he should receive a lucrative multi-year deal. To be fair, he was an above-average player on the championship Red Sox in 2013. But Boston put the qualifying offer on him and Drew decided to attempt to outrun its restrictions. That led to him not playing the first two months of the 2014 schedule, which cascaded into his woeful showing for both the Red Sox and the Yankees.
But the late start at least provided an excuse for a .162 average, but how to alibi away the .177 mark of 2015 when he had a full spring training? He is, in some ways, a better defensive version of Brian Roberts, who (like Drew this year) worked some walks and hit some big homers early last year. But Roberts’ overall failure as a player led to the acquisition of Martin Prado and Roberts being designated for assignment in late July.
When I asked Brian Cashman about Drew’s status, the Yankee general manager said fixing second base was not an immediate focus point, explaining Drew has “got rope, but if someone pushes his way into the mix, so be it. … I am open to having Drew all year or someone else taking this if they can. I can’t predict what is going to happen.”
The player most likely to be “someone else” is Rob Refsnyder — who, after a slow start on both sides of the ball, was hitting .300 with an .787 OPS and doing a bit better in his continuing transition from college outfielder to pro second baseman.
Rob RefsnyderAP
When I asked a scout about Refsnyder, he offered an intriguing comparison: “He is going to hit singles and doubles and try hard to get better at second, but I don’t know that it will ever be even average. He is kind of the right-handed Daniel Murphy. You’ll always think you should be doing better at that position.”
That feels like the never-ending story around the Mets — moving on from Murphy. But the finish line is nearing — the conclusion of the season or sooner. His protection against dubious defense and brain lapses in all phases of the game was his proficiency as a hitter, for at least average. But at a career-low .259 and .690 OPS, Murphy could be in peril of having Dilson Herrera unseat him — or maybe even Wilmer Flores or Matt Reynolds if the Mets find a shortstop. This will happen no later than 2016, but there are scenarios in which the Mets make the switch during this season.
The Mets never have moved much toward doing something long term with Murphy, and now his chance to match, say, the four-year, $40 million once given to Prado is dimming. As for Drew, he might even have to fight to get a major league contract next year, much less the one-year, $5 million deal he currently has with the Yankees. It is hard to sell a player who has a .167 average since the beginning of 2014.
At the quarter pole, there are other walk-year players potentially doing harm to their earning power, such as:
1. David Price, Tigers
He is going to get money, lots of it for a long time (barring serious injury). But I wonder if his postseason Twitter rant in 2013, his initial discomfort moving to Detroit in 2014 and his early season goodness (not greatness) in 2015 keeps him from, say, getting near the $210 million of his predecessor as Tigers ace, Max Scherzer, especially in a free-agent field that could be crowded with No. 1 types such as Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmermann.
Do his ties to Cubs manager Joe Maddon (who was Price’s skipper with Tampa Bay) and Cubs minor league pitching coordinator Derek Johnson (Price’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt) mean that he always will have a high-priced landing spot?
For now Price has too much statistical equivalency to David Phelps and is being outpitched on his on staff by Alfredo Simon, another walk-year figure, but one expected to receive considerably less in free agency.
2. Chris Davis/Matt Wieters, Orioles
Davis already marred his free agency last year, falling from 53 homers, a .286 average and a 1.004 OPS in 2013 to 26/.196/.704 while also getting suspended for using Adderall. This season his production is better but not great: eight homers/.210/.717, but he remains a whiff machine (61 in 39 games, a career-worst one every 2.3 at-bats).
Wieters had hoped to return from Tommy John surgery to begin this season, but he won’t even play in an affiliated game until this Tuesday at Double-A. If he proves he can catch and hit over the second half of the season, Wieters still should gain a big payday as a switch-hitting catcher.
It should be mentioned that Davis and Wieters are repped by Scott Boras.
3. Jeff Samardzija, White Sox
Jeff SamardzijaAP
There has been an annual expectation that Samardzija is ready to jump from good starter to ace.
But this year — back in Chicago, albeit with the White Sox, not his original Cubs — he has regressed as his susceptibility to get hit has risen and his strikeout rate has plummeted, though he has been excellent with eight-inning efforts in his past two starts.
There was thought that a good platform season could catapult Samardzija into the Price/Greinke/Cueto/Zimmermann headline group. What happens with a bad one?
4. Doug Fister, Nationals
He and Samardzija were expected to form a strong next tier of free agents after the aces. But he was pedestrian in his first seven starts (4.31 ERA, just 18 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings). Now, he is on the disabled list with a flexor strain in his right elbow.
5. Jason Heyward, Cardinals
He has been a darling of the sabermetric community as his elite defense, strong baserunning and ability to draw walks has outweighed his diminishing power and inability to hit lefties. This season he actually has handled southpaws well (.922OPS), but his work against righties (.577 OPS) has been dismal, the power still is iffy and his defense good, but not great.
There already is sentiment that St. Louis lost its big trade of the offseason with Heyward performing like this, and with the potential to leave after the season, while Shelby Miller has emerged as a low-cost Cy Young candidate in Atlanta. The Braves offered Heyward around $80 million following the 2013 season and the belief was that he would seek at least Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153 million or even $200 million. That will be a hard sell off of these first two months.
6. Ben Zobrist, A’s
If Heyward had new admirers in the stats world, Zobrist has long been the heavyweight champ.
He is a better version of Murphy because he does draw walks, hit for some power and plays strong defense at multiple positions. But he started slow (.704 OPS) and needed minor knee surgery in late April. He is due back soon, but he turns 34 Tuesday.
With Oakland struggling, Zobrist ranks among the most likely players to be traded fore July 31, so he could have the platform of a pennant race to restore value.
7. Mike Napoli, Red Sox
Mike NapoliGetty Images
Boston has not materialized into the offensive beast anticipated after adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. There are many reasons for that, but Napoli is a huge one — or at least he was.
His overall average still is just .193, but after three homers in his first 33 games, he now has four in his past five. So maybe he — and his free-agent campaign — is perking up.
8. Jimmy Rollins, Dodgers
Rollins approved a trade to Los Angeles to get away from the rebuild in Philadelphia and potentially set himself up for one more good payday. Instead, he is hitting just .192.
If prospect Corey Seager were tearing up Triple-A the way he did early this year Double-A, the Dodgers might have to think seriously about replacing Rollins. Instead, they have to hope the 36-year-old finds another gear.
9. Ian Desmond, Nationals
Before we just put Desmond at shortstop for the Yankees or Mets in 2016, consider that his OPS trend line is .845, .784, .743 and .691 this season. He has 12 errors. He turns 30 in September.
10. Ian Kennedy, Padres
He was expected to be in that second tier of free agent starters or atop the third. But he is one of the reasons San Diego has not met preseason optimism with a 6.75 ERA as eight homers in 29 1/3 innings have been really damaging.
