Trends come and go. Some have value, others are reactionary phenomenons. And some seem to make perfect sense, except that they don’t.
Today’s NFL has evolved into a pass-happy aerial showcase. Quarterbacks are throwing for more yards and touchdowns than ever, and scoring more fantasy points. Their receivers are the primary beneficiaries of this craze, getting more targets and opportunities to light up the fantasy scoreboard.
But does it make sense to draft QBs and WRs earlier in fantasy drafts based on these elevated numbers, particularly at the expense of running backs?
The short answer: No.
Yes, QBs are scoring more. But there are a lot of them scoring more — meaning you don’t have to spend a second-round pick on Aaron Rodgers, when you can get Andrew Luck several rounds later at a cost of just 3-4 points a week, on average.
Receivers are a bit more dicey — in the draft and week-to-week. After the top-tier — think Calvin Johnson down to the Keenan Allen/Jordy Nelson domain — it begins to get difficult to forecast for the season, and even harder for each game. For every monster game you get from Torrey Smith, there are going to be three or four duds. Marques Colston might be a fantasy force a couple of weeks out of the season, but QB Drew Brees spreads the ball around too much to feed Colston consistent fantasy numbers.
There is a reason last season’s top WR in most leagues, Josh Gordon, ranked just for 21st last season, behind four RBs, in overall fantasy points, in a three-way tie with a disappointing Robert Griffin III and fantasy also-ran Joe Flacco — and that includes an incredible four-game stretch of more than 100 yards receiving (including 237 and 261 in back-to-back weeks) with five TDs. Receivers are less reliable from game to game. But Gordon missed two games last year, you say? His 16.2 average per start still ranked just 19th.
This does not mean you should avoid WRs early, but using your first two picks on a pair of WRs is not an advisable strategy — particularly because you can add solid options such as Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz and the like a few rounds later.
Even after that, there are plentiful options for rounds to come.
Consider: If you pick in the middle of in the first round and take WRs with your first two picks in a 12-team draft (let’s call this the Option Pass), you may end up with a dominant duo of Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones but settling for C.J. Spiller and Andre Ellington as your top two RBs — a group we project to score combined total of 761. But if you go RB 1-2 (Option Run), your top four could be Matt Forte, Zac Stacy, Alshon Jeffrey and Keenan
Allen, projected for 797, a difference of about two points a week — if Spiller and Ellington perform to expectations, which we consider less likely than our WRs in Option Run.
If you alternate early, or mix in a QB or TE, you still end up with a less-than-desirable RB2 option. Option Run is the way to go. And considering we find the early QB and TE options either overvalued or not demonstratively better than later choices, we normally wait until Round Five to starting addressing these.
The Madman has drafted a formula — which we call the DVQ (Draft Value Quotient) — that illustrates this. It takes into account projected points and draft position, with variables that address positional availability and roster structure.
The crux of it is this: You would rather rely on a second-tier WR or QB than a middle-round RB in your regular starting lineup. So no, it doesn’t make sense to focus heavily on QBs and WRs early in your fantasy draft, despite the inflated passing number.
It pays to remember, perceived reality isn’t always the fantasy reality.
Do your bidding
As much as the Madman loves a snaking draft, auctions are where the real fun lives.
You aren’t trapped by a draft position, left waiting and hoping a player falls to your pick. If you want a player, and are willing to spend, you can get him.
Plus, the added strategy of when to nominate players, when to drive up the price on players you don’t really want, and when to spend your allotted funds enhances the experience and amplifies the need for fantasy acumen.
You can have him
Early in the draft, nominate those players you think are overvalued. If you believe Montee Ball is not worth his projected price, put him on the block, then watch another owner spend on someone you consider overvalued — making that team less likely to be able to compete for a player you truly want later on.
Ignite inflation
Let’s say you nominate Ball, who has a projected auction price of $32 at ESPN. And let’s say bidding begins to slow at around $23, but one team keeps trumping every other bid. Jump into the bidding to try to make sure this eager owner doesn’t get a steal. There is a risk: If your bluff is called, you could end up with a player you didn’t really want.
Leave penniless
In most auction leagues, your allotted funds do not carry over into the season. If you started with $200 and you finish with $20 left, that’s $20 you could have used to buy better players. Don’t be afraid to pay top dollar for 2-3 top-talent players. Near the end of almost every auction is a flurry of winning $1 bids, so don’t save a healthy sum to scoop up that deep sleeper. It’s likely you can get him for next to nothing.