STAR-STUDDED: Though both teams are operating with roughly the same $90 million budget, the Braves’ outfield is set with Jayson Heyward (left), B.J. Upton and Justin Upton, while Mets manager Terry Collins will be going with a not-so-intimidating combination of Lucas Duda, Matt Den Dekker, Marlon Byrd, Collin Cowgill and Mike Baxter. (AP)
PORT ST. LUCIE — The Braves’ outfield has taken a couple of Uptons, the Mets’ more downturns.
The evidence was overt yesterday at Tradition Field as the Braves travelled with their newly configured starting unit of Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton and Justin Upton (who was the designated hitter).
Meanwhile, there was Lucas Duda in left, Matt Den Dekker in center and Marlon Byrd in right, which might have the distinction of being the starting unit for both the 2013 Mets and the 2014 Long Island Ducks.
But how could anyone pinpoint the Mets’ starting outfield when even their manager, Terry Collins said, “I don’t know who it is” four weeks before the season opener. He could close his eye and pick the names out of a hat or, well, he could just close his eyes. Because it is possible the Met outfield will be the worst unit of any type — outfield, infield, starting pitching, etc. — in the majors.
These two outfields define why the Braves are viewed as contenders and the Mets are not, though both are operating with roughly the same $90 million payroll. And it isn’t like the Mets are skimping on outfield and outdo Atlanta elsewhere, heck you can make a case that the Braves have the best bullpen in the majors.
Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as a barometer because it provides a statistic that accounts for both offense and defense, Atlanta’s outfield was tied for fourth best in the majors last year with Oakland while the Mets were 29th, ahead of just wasn’t-even-trying Houston.
Yet, Braves general manager Frank Wren described the grouping of Heyward, Michael Bourn and mostly Martin Prado as “good, solid, but it didn’t profile with the power and speed that we wanted.”
So they signed B.J. Upton to a five-year, $75 million contract and traded very good — but not great — prospects to Arizona for Justin Upton.
Meanwhile, the Mets portrayed themselves as strong pursuers of both Bourn and Justin Upton. If that duo were here, the Mets’ outfield and outlook would be more positive.
But they never resolved if they could keep their first-round pick should they sign Bourn, and so he signed with Cleveland. The Mets felt Arizona requested more from them then Atlanta. Conspiracy theorists say it was because Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers still holds a grudge from his later years as Padres GM working uneasily under a team president named Sandy Alderson.
Whatever the reasons, these are the Mets, right now: More comfortable explaining why they finished second than winning for players they want — and need. So rather than excite their clubhouse and fan base, the Mets signed a retread like Byrd and obtained Collin Cowgill from a tiny-market Oakland team that had six outfielders better: Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Seth Smith, Brandon Moss and Chris Young (yet another outfielder traded by Arizona the Mets considered, but did not obtain).
Are the Uptons perfect? Well, it is not difficult to find executives and scouts who question their makeups, and not all are sold B.J. is nearly as good a center fielder as his reputation. But Wren insists his organization did extensive homework and “I don’t have questions about them at all.”
Instead, Wren sees the Braves in control of three uber-talented outfielders for at least three years, which provides a potential new face to the organization in a post-Chipper Jones world (heck, maybe Justin Upton will be the new Met killer after crushing a homer off Jeremy Hefner yesterday). He envisions his current outfield trio pushing each other to excellence the way Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz once did with Atlanta.
“If all play to their potential, we can have one of the best outfields in baseball,” Wren said.
If the Mets candidates play to their potential is that even a positive? Is Duda a 30-homer force or a tease? Will Den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis (currently out with a bad knee) find enough offense so that their strong defense matters? Will Byrd and Cowgill translate so far productive springs into success or will we remember Byrd had a .488 OPS before a PED suspension last year and Cowgill was, again, an Oakland afterthought? Will Mike Baxter at least hit righties well again?
Collins just might have to mix, match and platoon at all three spots to hunt major league production. Life is tough when you have three fewer starting outfielders than a division rival.