There’s a four-letter word that rhymes with “duck” that if you say it will get you dirty looks around the Jets, but it’s not the one you traditionally think of.
It’s luck, as in the Jets are lucky f … um … ducks.
No one around the Jets wants to hear this team has been lucky so far and that is why they are 4-3. They don’t want to hear about Lavonte David’s penalty in Week 1 giving them the game or being the beneficiaries of a rule Sunday in overtime against the Patriots that had never been enforced before.
But the Jets have been lucky.
Their four wins have come by a combined 13 points. The Jets have given up 28 more points than they’ve scored. There are six teams in the NFL who have a worse point differential than the Jets. None has more than two wins.
Now, that is not to say the Jets have not played well. Their defensive line has been all-world, the offense has shown flashes of big-play ability and Rex Ryan has coached his tail off to make this team believe it’s better than its talent says it is.
However, there are some statistical red flags in the Jets performance through seven games that make you wonder if eventually their luck will run out or if they can keep defying logic to make a run at the playoffs.
The Jets have really done an amazing job of winning despite violating some of the most sacred football axioms. Ask any football coach from pee wee to the pros and they’ll say you’ll win more than you’ll lose if you win the turnover battle.
The Jets are -11 in turnover margin. Only the Giants are worse in the NFL. As good as the Jets’ defense has been, they have only four takeaways, more than only the Steelers.
Coachspeak 101 also includes this favorite: the team that commits less penalties usually wins. The Jets lead the league with 64 penalties, 10 more than any other team. They committed more penalties than their opponents in three of their four wins.
You take these two factors alone and the Jets should have 1-2 wins.
If you’re an optimistic Jets fan, you say, well they’ve been able to win making these mistakes, imagine how they’ll be if they clean things up?” If you’re not wearing green and white, you say, “they can’t possibly continue to win like this.”
There are a few other troubling trends for the Jets that must be broken if they want to play games in January. They have to beat a team with a strong defense.
So far, Ryan’s Jets have fared well when playing teams with mediocre or weak defenses and struggled against good ones. Their wins are against the Buccaneers (13th in the NFL in total defense), the Patriots (18th), the Falcons (20th) and the Bills (24th). The losses came to the Steelers (6th), Titans (10th) and Patriots (18th).
So, you can throw out the Patriots, who they split with. The Steelers and Titans defenses dominated the Jets. Pittsburgh did not allow a touchdown and Tennessee only allowed one late, when the game was already out of hand.
The next two weeks the Jets get the Bengals and the Saints, ranked ninth and 11th in total defense, respectively.
Rookie quarterback Geno Smith has been graded on a curve by all of us. He puts up some nice highlights, but he also delivers his share of mistakes. People overlook the 11 interceptions after he wins a game and want to name him the franchise quarterback.
The reality is right now he is extremely inconsistent and is the 27th-rated passer in the NFL. The only true starting quarterbacks ranked lower are Eli Manning and Carson Palmer. This is not a commentary on what Smith will be in the future, but it does speak to where he and the Jets are right now.
Even when you look at the Jets’ strength — the defense — there are holes. As good as the line is, the secondary has had problems. Ryan’s crew is ranked fourth in yards allowed, but 21st in scoring defense.
Through seven weeks, the Jets have proven many of the traditional laws of football wrong. But usually the law of averages catches up to you.
Maybe the Jets are a charmed team and play an entire season like this, but it’s going to take a lot of luck.