OK, this was not meant to be a cliffhanger. Since the clue is the “14-start mark” and this is New York and Matt Harvey is starting tonight, you probably already know Harvey is Pitcher A.
What might surprise you is Pitcher B is Michael Pineda through his first 14 starts — all for the Mariners in 2011. Here might come another piece of info you didn’t know: Pineda is just 69 days older than Harvey. Still just 24.
So pick your story angle: We can scare the bejeezus out of Mets fans with Cautionary Tale No. 1,265,305 on how great today, gone tomorrow pitching can be. Or we can better understand what so excited the Yankees about Pineda — and keeps them guardedly intrigued even now as he begins to accelerate his rehab after shoulder surgery.
Pineda’s numbers were not quite as good as Harvey’s through 14 starts and he pitched home games in cavernous Safeco Field, but he was two years younger than Harvey is now and was in the DH league.
Still, even if Pineda were just 90 percent of Harvey, you can better understand why the Yankees were willing to move heaven, earth and Jesus Montero for him. If 90 percent of Matt Harvey were available right now, the other 29 teams would be bidding furiously for that.
Actually, through 17 starts, Pineda was even closer to Harvey (2.58 ERA, .564 OPS against, 8.8 strikeouts per nine). He made the All-Star team — just as Harvey looks headed to doing, maybe even getting the start at Citi Field — and struck out two of the three men he faced.
However, in his final 11 starts, Pineda had a 5.71 ERA. Maybe that should have been a warning. But within the peripherals, the Yankees still noticed he was giving up less than a hit an inning while striking out more than a batter per frame. The Yankees saw a young guy with little experience (12 starts at Triple-A, or eight fewer than Harvey) tiring from the long season and a losing atmosphere (last-place Seattle lost 95 times).
“We thought were getting someone who would pitch toward front of a rotation, that his upside was a No. 2 starter,” general manager Brian Cashman said.
Of course, Pineda never has thrown a pitch for the Yankees. He broke down in spring 2012, needed surgery in May to repair a shoulder tear and didn’t throw his first simulated inning until Monday. The Yankees have been encouraged by a setback-free recovery. The reports from the simulation were that he topped out in the low 90-mph range and threw well.
Without regression, the Yankees hope Pineda will begin a 30-day rehab in early May and let his performance dictate whether he should go to the minors for more seasoning/strengthening or to join the Yankees in early June (beware, Ivan Nova). But the Yankees know shoulder operations generally leave a pitcher more reduced than, say, Tommy John surgery. They recognize that even 90 percent of Matt Harvey could be a pipedream.
“You have to erase all of your [previous expectations] because you don’t know what you’ve got,” Cashman acknowledged. “Certainly you always hope and dream, but this is a significant injury, so you don’t know what you are going to get. I don’t want to misrepresent to our fan base and say you are getting the No. 2 guy we thought we had obtained. That would be an inaccurate statement. His rehab has gone great and he looks good so far. He still has a way to go. We hope at the very least he can help us and, at the most, we get what we traded for. We will have to wait to find out.”
Montero struggles make deal a bust on both ends
AT THE time of the Jesus Montero-for-Michael Pineda trade, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said he was giving away the best prospect he ever had surrendered in a deal. Montero drew Miguel Cabrera comparisons as a hitter. But he has been closer to Miguel Cairo as a Mariner.
Montero’s .674 OPS since joining Seattle last year was not only nearly exact to Cairo’s career .675, but was 106th out of 114 players with at least 600 plate appearances in that time frame. Now, some provisos: Montero, at 23, is a few months younger than both Pineda and the Mets’ Matt Harvey. Even with moved-in fences, Safeco Field is a tough park for hitters. And Montero appears to be a slow starter and heated up in the last week with his first homer Monday.
Still, it is more difficult to find true believers in even his bat today than a year ago. One executive who saw him recently complimented Montero for being trimmer and running better, but added, his organization “didn’t see him as an impact bat.”
And though there is a long way between now and coming to peace with the trade, you would have to say at this point it is pretty much a bust all around. Hector Noesi was one of the majors’ worst pitchers last year (2-12, 5.82) and was so dreadful in spring that he was busted to Double-A. He pitched well enough early there to recently get summoned for the Mariner bullpen. Meanwhile, Jose Campos, the secondary piece who so excited the Yankees, made just five starts last year before being shut down the rest of the season with elbow inflammation. He is just 20 and the Yankees say he is healthy. But in three starts at Low-A Charleston, where he has been restrained to three innings in each, Campos has pitched to a 5.00 ERA.
Catchers starting strong
ONE reason the Yankees felt somewhat comfortable dealing catcher Jesus Montero for pitcher Michael Pineda in January 2012 was the belief that catching depth was an organizational strength. But within that strength they never viewed Francisco Cervelli as much more than a backup.
Yet as much the Yankees might want to see Alex Rodriguez go down for his Biogenesis ties — as a way to at least avoid paying him for 50 days, if not more — they would be devastated if Cervelli were suspended. Who would have ever thunk that?
The fear when Russell Martin fled was about the lost offense behind the plate. But Cervelli (with five extra-base hits and more walks than strikeouts) ranked ninth among catchers with an .867 OPS (minimum 50 plate appearances). Martin, rebounding from an atrocious start, was 16th (.775). Montero was 25th out of 28 (.556).
No one should expect either New York catcher, Cervelli or the Mets’ John Buck, to maintain such an early strong pace. But Cervelli and Chris Stewart had combined for an .872 OPS (seventh best for any team’s catchers in the majors) and, to date, kept an extreme area of Yankees concern from being a problem.