MLB

Collins must give Baxter long look in Mets leadoff role

SLIDING SCALE: Mike Baxter is off for third base after stealing second and watching the throw sail past Marlins shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria during the Mets’ 7-3 triumph yesterday at Citi Field. (Christopher Pasatieri)

John Buck won’t finish this season with 292 RBIs — shoot, if he keeps hitting like this, he might not even be a Met by July 31 — while Jon Niese very well could finish 2013 as the frontline starting pitcher he appears to be. Week 1 of the baseball season always presents us with bad bets and good bets.

It also can give us early decision points, and the Mets’ 7-3 victory over the Marlins yesterday at Citi Field underlined a move that really should be made with this team, starving for outfield production.

Whenever Mike Baxter doesn’t start against a right-handed pitcher, the Mets should have an awfully good excuse.

“I’ll tell you what he does, he stays within himself,” manager Terry Collins said of Baxter, who contributed a single, two walks, a stolen base and two runs scored as the Mets’ leadoff hitter. “He keeps his game going. He has a very, very good knowledge of the strike zone, doesn’t go outside the strike zone.

“I think as he continues to regain his strength, he’s going to help us.”

“I get excited when I get a chance to play, whether it’s off the bench or starting,” said Baxter, the Whitestone native and Archbishop Molloy product. “I think with the group we have, we all bring unique skill sets to the table. And then TC does a good job of kind of mixing and matching that.”

Their fifth game of the year, an important one in which the Mets halted a two-game losing streak and lifted their record to 3-2, marked Baxter’s first start of the season. Collins correctly put him in the leadoff spot, where his impact was significant. Baxter drew a first-inning walk against Marlins starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco and worked his way around the bases on singles by David Wright and Ike Davis and a Buck sacrifice fly to even the score 1-1.

His third-inning base hit, a line drive off the glove of Miami third baseman Placido Polanco, led only to Daniel Murphy hitting into a 4-6-3 double play. Yet when the Marlins tied the game 3-3 in the top of the seventh, it was Baxter who drew a one-out walk off reliever Ryan Webb in the bottom of the frame. He broke for second on a 1-and-1 fastball to Murphy. The play would have been close with an accurate throw, yet Marlins catcher Miguel Olivo misfired the ball into center field, allowing Baxter to sprint to third base. He scored on Murphy’s triple to center, and the Mets added a couple of insurance runs in the seventh and another in the eighth on Collin Cowgill’s solo homer.

We know the Mets’ outfield is a collection of modestly compensated has-beens and could-bes. However, what stands out about Baxter is just how good he has been in his limited major-league chances. He now has a career on-base percentage of .363 in 270 plate appearances. It constitutes barely half a season, but doesn’t that match favorably against Cowgill, Marlon Byrd, Jordany Valdespin and Kirk Nieuwenhuis, three of whom own virtually no big-league success and the fourth of whom (Byrd) hasn’t been good for many years?

“He takes a base on balls,” Collins said. “If he was a genuine base-stealer, he’d be dangerous. You look up, and he’s got a .375 on-base. It seems like he’s on first base all of the time.”

The humble Baxter, who now has six career stolen bases, smiled when told of Collins’ words.

“I think a true base-stealer like Juan Pierre, Dave Roberts, Tom Goodwin, guys like that, the whole stadium can know they’re going and they’ll steal the base,” he said. “I think there’s that second tier of base-stealers where if the pitcher kind of gives enough time with the delivery, that’s when I feel like I’m comfortable going.”

The Mets should be comfortable starting Baxter against righties, against whom he owns a .380 OBP. See what he can do. After all, as Collins noted, the Mets played very well with Baxter very much in the mix last year until he cemented himself in team lore with the June 1 catch that both preserved Johan Santana’s no-hitter and placed him on the disabled list for nearly two months with a displaced right collarbone and fractured rib cartilage.

“I’m not sure Mike is still fully recovered,” Collins said yesterday.

“I’m OK,” Baxter said. “I’m fine.”

It’s time to test how fine Baxter can be. It’s a bet worth making for the Mets.