The truth arose early in training camp, and it cut right through the rosy glow of last season’s supposed breakthrough.
“We expected last year to happen a year earlier,” owner Charles Wang said. “We are a year behind schedule.”
That was on a dais in Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the Islanders to-be home come the 2015-16 season, and sitting next to Wang was his general manager, Garth Snow. Most thought that last season was a revelation, as the franchise made the postseason for the first time since 2007 and gave the top-seeded Penguins a run for their money in a rousing six-game series. Yet for Wang and Snow, expectations might be a little clearer than they are for their beleaguered and beaten-down fan base, and those expectations are even higher heading into this season.
That means missing the playoffs, no matter how it happens, will not be rationalized as a year for growth, and even a first-round exit would be unsatisfying.
The team hasn’t changed very much from last season. It is still led by cornerstone Hart Trophy finalist and recently minted captain John Tavares. In net again is Evgeni Nabokov, now 38, while on the blue line there might be an influx of younger and more athletic defensemen.
This team is no longer playing for good will, but to gain a spot as a legitimate contender for years to come. The pending move to Brooklyn has set a definitive timeline for that advancement, and another setback could markedly derail the franchise.
OFFENSE
Tavares is the motor that drives the Islanders, and that’s especially true when it comes to producing goals. It’s looking like the new addition to the top line with him and longtime partner Matt Moulson is still up for grabs, but could be the recently signed Pierre-Marc Bouchard, a former first-round pick who is hoping to reinvent his career at age 27. That role is historically a prosperous one, starting with P.A. Parenteau, followed last season by Brad Boyes, both of whom left for richer pastures.
They will need to be complemented by good follow-up years from Josh Bailey, Frans Nielsen and Kyle Okposo. Behind them is an energetic checking line exemplified by Matt Martin, and when Cal Clutterbuck returns from his lacerated thigh injury by early November, he can add some punch and offensive touch to a much-improved fourth line.
DEFENSE
The franchise showed its faith in shutdown defenseman Travis Hamonic this summer by giving the 23-year-old a seven-year, $27 million contract. He’ll most likely team again with swift skater Andrew MacDonald — still looking for his own contract extension — to form a definitive first pair.
Behind them in some combination will be at-home man Brian Strait and power-play point man Lubomir Visnovsky. Then comes the part of the roster that might be fluid throughout the season, as two rookies, Matt Donovan and Griffin Reinhart, both made the team. They join the smart but diminutive Thomas Hickey, as well as the hulking tough guy Matt Carkner, to round out an eclectic (and somewhat unpredictable) defense corps.
GOALTENDING
For the first time in a long time, the name Rick DiPietro is no longer a part of the Islanders’ goaltending equation. Snow used one of his amnesty buyouts on the oft-injury netminder, taking his 15-year, $67.5 million contract off the salary cap in a move that officially began the new era.
So back on another one-year deal is veteran Nabokov, who excelled during the lockout-shortened season, starting 41 of 48 games and putting up an impressive 2.50 goals-against average with a .910 save percentage. Although he’s now 38, Nabokov spent the summer training in anticipation of carrying another heavy load.
Winning the job to back him up was Kevin Poulin, the 23-year-old who played well in the preseason and should get the chance to prove himself as the franchise’s future goaltender.
COACHING
It took Jack Capuano less than three years to become second on the list of all-time Islanders coaching victories, which he did in the middle of last season. Since he took over behind the bench in the middle of the 2010-11 season, Capuano has instilled a culture of accountability that has helped the franchise turn a corner.
But there are no more moral victories left in the tank, and he needs his team to keep improving. The time is now for Capuano to prove that he is more than a motivator, and it will take his team winning their first playoff series since 1993.
KEYS TO THE SEASON
Most important offensive player: Tavares. The reigning Hart Trophy finalist not only makes the players around him better, but can inspire a whole team with one wondrous shift.
Most important defensive player: MacDonald. Still waiting for a new contract, MacDonald is coming off a broken wrist suffered in the playoffs and hopes his superlative skating can keep his status as a top-pair guy.
Top rookie: Brock Nelson. The big-bodied forward is back to the wing position he played at North Dakota, and he has solid vision and playmaking ability.
Key coaching decision: To gauge the fatigue of Nabokov. The Islanders rode the veteran for the majority of last season, and Nabokov subsequently had a rocky postseason. With an unproven backup in Poulin, Capuano is going to have to be wise about when to play him.
ROSTER
Left wing: Matt Moulson, Josh Bailey, Matt Martin, Michael Grabner, Brock Nelson
Center: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen, Casey Cizikas, Peter Regin
Right wing: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Kyle Okposo, Colin McDonald, Eric Boulton, Cal Clutterbuck (IR)
Defense: Travis Hamonic, Andrew MacDonald, Brian Strait, Lubomir Visnovsky, Matt Carkner, Thomas Hickey, Matt Donovan, Griffin Reinhart
Goalie: Evgeni Nabokov, Kevin Poulin
PREDICTION
Things have to at least partially break the right way if the Isles want to repeat their postseason performance. Most notably, they need to stay healthy and get another good season out of Nabokov. Considering most of their key players have a history of staying on the ice, and Nabokov’s extra offseason conditioning work, those two facets seem likely. They’ll make it in, but winning a series might be a bit of a stretch.