THE Post Bettor’s Guide regular-season champion really deserves a bye in the first round of the playoffs. But that’s not the way it works, so here we go for Wild-Card Weekend:
SATURDAY
COLTS (-2¹/₂) over Chiefs; Over 46¹/₂: Before the season, the Colts were the pick here to beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl. The Colts had a strange trip to 11-5. They went 6-0 against the AFC South, but the Jaguars, Titans and especially Texans were three of the worst teams in the league. Indy also had two head-scratchingly bad games, losing 38-8 (at home!) to the Rams, and getting nuked 40-11 at Arizona.
But there are two main reasons to stick with them. One, they beat arguably the three best teams in this tournament — 27-7 at San Francisco, 34-28 versus Seattle and 39-33 vs. Denver. That says the team in general, and Andrew Luck in particular, have the ability to get up for the biggest games.
The other is the Colts’ 23-7 win at Kansas City just two weeks ago. The Chiefs roared to a 9-0 start, but beat only the Redskins and Raiders to end up at the same 11-5 as the Colts. In total, the Chiefs posted an AFC-best plus-18 turnover differential. But on Dec. 22 in Arrowhead, the Chiefs were minus-4 with three fumbles and an interception.
Colts, 27-20
EAGLES (-2¹/₂) over Saints; Under 54: This isn’t a matter of the Saints not being quite the same team on the road as they are at home, it’s that they have become total imposters. This team that went 8-0 in the Superdome was 3-5 away. Worse, the Saints lost four of their last five away, with the lone win coming indoors (17-13 at Atlanta). Surrounding that, in air far warmer than it will be at the Linc on Saturday night, the Drew Crew never got above 20 points in losing at the Jets (26-20), Seattle (34-7), St. Louis (27-16) and Carolina (17-13, albeit in a monsoon).
As late as Oct. 27, the Eagles were a disaster, sitting at 3-5 with a 10-game home losing streak. Then Nick Foles took over in Oakland and the Eagles finished 7-1, winning their last four at home, capped by a 54-11 annihilation of the Bears. Foles finished with 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions for an NFL-high quarterback rating of 119.2.
The Saints are the No. 2 passing team in the NFL and the Eagles are 32nd (last) versus the pass. But the 23-degree temperature will benefit Philly. Meanwhile, the Eagles are tops in rushing and Saints 19th stopping the run. That will be the more telling matchup here.
Eagles 31-21
SUNDAY
Chargers (+7) over BENGALS; Under 47: OK so by all rights, the Chargers shouldn’t be in this game. If the proper penalty had been called on Ryan Succop’s miss last week, the Chargers stay home after inexplicably losing a do-or-die home game against a team that was resting almost all of its best players. Now, however, the Bolts are in a great betting situation, playing with house money against a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since January, 1991, and a coach (Marvin Lewis) who is 0-4 in wild-card games with two of the losses at home (Jets in 2009, Steelers in 2005).
This is not to say the Bengals won’t survive and advance. They were 8-0 in the Jungle this season. Andy Dalton, though, has run hot (32 TDs) and cold (20 picks). And the Chargers have the type of offense with Ryan Mathews (1,255 yards rushing), Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates that can function in low 30s with a little snow. They won games at Philly, KC and Denver and have a hell of a shot here.
Bengals, 23-20
PACKERS (+2¹/₂) over 49ers, Under 47: Old Man Winter will be the star of this game at Lambeau, where the forecast is for temperatures of around 5 below, with wind chills to minus 20 and beyond. Oh, yeah, with a chance of some snow.
The Packers have lost three times to the Niners since Week 1 of last year, including the playoffs, so this is a rare triple-revenge game. And they did look like a far better offense last week with Aaron Rodgers back.
The Niners largely should be able to function in the extreme cold because of their top defense and Frank Gore. But Colin Kaepernick should have a rough time getting the ball down the field, and may be hesitant to run if he’s worried about getting drilled into the frozen tundra. Mike McCarthy will keep hitting the Niners D with battering ram Eddie Lacy, and Rodgers will make just enough magic.
Packers, 20-17
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Colts (Locks 7-9-1)
LAST WEEK: 6-10 overall, 1-2 Best Bets