The four-year, $39.95 million contract the Yankees gave Carl Pavano was a turkey. Fittingly, he probably will be an ex-Yankee by Thanksgiving.
There is a strong likelihood the Yanks will release Pavano before Nov. 20 so that they can use his 40-man roster spot for a player valuable to their future. Each team’s 40-man roster must be set by that date in preparation for the Rule V draft on Dec. 6 at the Winter Meetings.
Players not on the 40-man roster and with the requisite professional service time in the minors are eligible to be drafted by other clubs. For example, the Mets lost Jesus Flores in the process last year and Flores became a value backup catcher for the Nationals.
So teams treat each of those slots preciously and the Yanks will do so, especially now as they emphasize the restoration of their farm system. For example, the Yanks will put a pitching prospect who would be eligible in the Rule V Draft such as Jeffrey Marquez on the 40-man roster.
Pavano had Tommy John surgery in the first week of July. A quick healer might make it back to the mound in a year. But Pavano is not a quick healer. There probably is a slim chance that since they have invested so much in the right-hander that the Yanks will keep him on the roster, hope he recuperates and then try to trade him late in the season. Nevertheless, as one AL executive said, “Who would trade for a guy like that who basically hasn’t pitched in three years?”
In addition, the Yanks would have to eat just about Pavano’s entire salary anyway, even if there were a trade to be made. Pavano is due $11 million in 2008 and has a 2009 team option for $13 million with a $1.95 million buyout. The Yanks likely will see it as a sunk cost and value protecting their prospects over some pipedream of getting any value out of the indifferent Pavano. The Yanks already have a complicated 40-man roster situation because to sign Juan Miranda and Andrew Brackman, they had to give them major league contracts and, thus, 40-man-roster slots years before they would have been eligible for them.
If Pavano is not released this month, he probably will be before spring training as the Yanks’ 40-man roster refills with either their own signed free agents such as Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, or their replacements.
So for a four-year, $39.95 million contract, the Yanks would have received 19 starts and a load of headaches and heartaches from the brittle Pavano. He went 5-6 as a Yankee with a 4.77 ERA. He had as many wins in four years as a Yankee as reliever Luis Vizcaino did in the four weeks from to June 22-July 21 last year.