While some commentators are urging President Obama to arm the Syrian rebels, he may be doing the opposite — by trying to stop the flow of arms to them.
Sources in the Syrian opposition tell me that the message from Washington to countries that help arm the rebels is to slow down shipments as a part of “confidence-building measures” with Russia. Secretary of State John Kerry transmitted the message to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan in his recent visits.
In a visit to Moscow this month, Kerry made a deal with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to convene another “international conference” on Syria. In that context Kerry agreed to several “confidence-building measures.”These reportedly include pressing the Friends of Syria group of nations to reduce arms deliveries and financial support to forces fighting President Bashar al-Assad.
Kerry has also removed the veto on Assad’s participation in putative talks about a transition scheme. And the talk is that Kerry will allow Iran, Assad’s staunchest ally, to participate in the conference.
Sources in Turkey and Arab states tell me that they have agreed to a reduction in arms deliveries in the hope that the US could persuade Russia to also scale down its support for Assad. However, there are signs that Russia is doing the opposite by providing Assad with additional arms, including advanced rockets and missiles.
That Assad’s arsenals are being fast replenished is evident in the successes his faction has scored over the past week or two. Using overwhelming firepower, and thanks to its monopoly on air strikes, Assad has recaptured large chunks of territory in the Horan area and Homs with the aim of cutting the rebels’ supply routes from Jordan and Lebanon.
Right now, what could be the most decisive battle of the civil war so far is being fought in and around Qusair, a Sunni Muslim town of 60,000 in the Homs province. Six miles from the Lebanese border, Qusair is a vital link in the rebels’ logistics. The current battle started two weeks ago with pro-Assad forces, backed by fighters from the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, capturing the road to the port of Tartus. Located on the Mediterranean, Tartus has special importance because Russia has a naval base there while the Iranian navy enjoys “mooring facilities.”
The capture of Qusair would enable Assad to have a direct link with Hezbollah. The Iranian-sponsored Lebanese group is now officially engaged in the Syrian war with some 3,000 “Holy Warriors” fighting alongside Assad’s death squads, known as al-Shabbiha (The Ghosts). Syrian rebel sources tell me that Iran is also directly involved through “volunteer” units from the paramilitary Baseej, controlled by the “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei.
According to Syrian sources, and partly confirmed by Assad’s official media, almost one third of Qusair’s population has fled the city, mostly into Lebanon. Assad’s forces are conducting “ethnic-cleansing” to drive Sunni Muslims out of the area. The “cleansed” villages are repopulated with families from Assad’s Alawite sect and Hezbollah “volunteer” families from Lebanon.
The capture of Qusair would enable Assad to carry out his Plan B, aimed at carving out a mini-state for his sect between the mountains west of Damascus and the Mediterranean. Such a mini-state, covering some 7,000 square miles, would also enable Russia and Iran to maintain their naval presence in the Mediterranean while using Hezbollah to turn Lebanon into a satellite state.
Assad’s Plan B would mean the dismantling of Syria as a nation-state and the emergence of large chunks of“non-governed” areas that could become safe havens for terrorists.
According to a senior Jordanian source, Assad might designate his mini-state “Free Syria” and claim that rest of the country is “occupied territory,” which he would vow to “liberate” as his father vowed to “liberate” the Golan Heights from Israeli occupation.
The consensus in Middle Eastern political circles is that the Russians have led Kerry down the garden path. The “international conference” is unlikely to produce better results than the previous one held in Geneva a year ago. It is also possible that the proposed conference will never take place.
Even if the conference does take place, Iran and Russia could use it as a delaying mechanism to keep Assad in power at least until the end of his mandate next year. Assad and his allies want to buy time, hoping to starve the rebels of weapons and ultimately crush them with superior weapons. Knowingly or not, Kerry is giving that deadly scenario a helping hand.