Entertainment

Michael Riedel’s Tonys forecast

And the winner is . . .

Those four words will set off butterflies in plenty of stomachs at the Tony Awards. A few key races have tightened up in the past week, so there should be a decent amount of suspense in Radio City Musical Hall on Sunday night.

The most hotly contested battle is between “Matilda” and “Kinky Boots” for Best Musical. A lot is at stake. Both shows are “nervous hits,” which is to say they’re doing fine, for now, at the box office. But neither has set the street on fire the way “Book of Mormon” did a few seasons back. And both are being out-grossed every week by “Motown,” which wasn’t even nominated.

Fearing a British backlash, the producers of “Matilda,” which comes from London, haven’t waged an aggressive Tony campaign. They may regret that.

“Kinky Boots,” on the other hand, has been relentless. Leading the parade is Harvey Fierstein, who wrote the book. He’s been talking up his musical everywhere. He even showed up at the Brooklyn Diner to accept one of the season’s more unusual awards, a 15-bite hot dog. Since the stunt came on the heels of Anthony Weiner’s first day campaigning for mayor, photos of Fierstein agog at his special wiener were all over the place. Shameless, old-school p.r. nonsense — but fun and effective.

Some voters think the critics overpraised “Matilda,” and they admire it more than they love it. “Kinky Boots,” they say, may not be as good as, say, “Hairspray,” but it’s damned entertaining.

I’ll give the edge to “Matilda” — it’s beautifully written and directed — but I won’t be surprised if those “Boots” walk all over it.

If there is a “Kinky Boots” surge, the tipoff will be Best Book. If Fierstein wins, a “Kinky Boots” juggernaut is shaping up. If Dennis Kelly wins for “Matilda,” the game is still afoot.

I tip it to Kelly.

Best Score will go to Cyndi Lauper, making her Broadway debut with “Kinky Boots,” though Tim Minchin deserves praise for “Matilda.” His sophisticated music and tricky lyrics reward repeated listening.

Another tipoff to a “Kinky Boots” sweep will be Best Actor in a Musical. If the winner is Billy Porter, who plays a drag performer in the show, “Matilda” can pick up its marbles and go home. If the Tony goes to Bertie Carvel, the evil Miss Trunchbull of “Matilda,” the suspense mounts.

I think Carvel will take it.

As for Best Play, the winner will be Chris
Durang’s charming comedy “Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike.” Richard Greenberg’s “The Assembled Parties” was oversold by the Times, and Nora Ephron’s “Lucky Guy” is more like a documentary about the late tabloid reporter Mike Mc-Alary than a proper play.

But Tom Hanks, who plays McAlary, will win for Best Actor. He’s a Hollywood movie star making his Broadway debut and doing a first-rate job. And he’s played the Tony game masterly. He’s shown up at all the right cocktail parties and has been warm and accessible.

The sentimental favorite for Best Actress in a Play is Cicely Tyson, the 79-year-old (or 88-year-old — reports vary) star of “The Trip to Bountiful.” I think she’ll win, but don’t be surprised if Kristine Nielsen pulls off an upset for her hilarious performance in “Vanya.”

Best Revival of a Musical will go to “Pippin,” which is doing its magic at the box office. “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” will win for Best Revival of a Play, even though its producers had their little hands slapped for not having their Tony voter material vetted by the Tony police.

The lovely Laura Osnes will win Best Actress for “Cinderella,” Richard Kind will be rewarded for his funny and scary performance as a Hollywood mogul in “The Big Knife” and Andrea Martin (“Pippin”) will win for Best Featured Actress. Any woman of a certain age who swings and sings upside down in tights deserves a Tony.