WILL our economic trou bles produce a significant rise in crime? It’s not as certain as some suggest.
The common predictions of rising crime bring to mind the eminent criminologists who warned in the 1990s that “super predators” were about to go on the rampage or that the country would soon experience “a bloodbath.” In fact, the reverse happened. Since 1990, cities across America have seen large drops in crime with New York, down 75 percent, leading the way.
A look at the Great Depression of the 1930s suggests a jump in the crime rate is not inevitable now. And if it starts to happen, prompt government action can reverse the trend.
The records of the ’30s don’t permit a comprehensive crime analysis, but homicide rates are indicative. In the early Depression years, the murder figures continued to reflect the general lawlessness of the Prohibition era. After Prohibition’s repeal in 1933, the murder rates in New York and the nation fell significantly even though 25 percent of the population was out of work.
Following repeal, some parts of the country did experience widespread violence. Ex-bootleggers and other desperados began robbing banks, kidnapping for ransom and murdering law-enforcement officers. But the federal government moved quickly to deal with the problem. President Franklin Roosevelt created the modern FBI and ordered it to go on the offensive against gangsters like John Dillinger, “Pretty Boy” Floyd and “Machine Gun” Kelly. In less than two years the gunmen were routed.
A similar onslaught of violence occurred in the 1980s, when Colombian drug cartels set off a “crack explosion” that engulfed US cities. In New York, drug gangsters brandishing automatic weapons roamed our streets, mowing down rivals and innocent bystanders alike. In just five years, the number of murders rose 62 percent, to an all-time high of 2,245.
Of late, some people appear to have forgotten that era. Today, drug offenders are often portrayed as innocents jailed for possessing a small amount of marijuana, or harmless addicts swept up in police dragnets. The current wave of violence on the Mexican border reminds us of the real impact of drug traffickers. In reality, the vast majority of individuals imprisoned on drug charges in New York were sent there because the community, particularly residents of the inner city, demanded an end to the reign of terror.
Another now-predicted scenario is that the economic crisis will cause many small enterprises to be shuttered potentially breeding crime. This would be reminiscent of the 1980s in New York, when neighborhoods from The Bronx to Brooklyn appeared to be dying.
However, some researchers discovered that, contrary to popular belief, it was crime that caused poverty, not the reverse: Economic activity could not flourish in neighborhoods controlled by violent criminals. In the ’90s, after police took the streets back from the gangsters, many neighborhoods were revitalized by citizen initiatives and government funds.
A lot of the federal stimulus money will likely be allotted to such areas. But keeping them from being overwhelmed by drug dealers and other predators will require the continuation of effective law enforcement.
Because of an anticipated loss of tax revenue, the NYPD faces severe budget cuts. In 2000, it had 40,800 officers. In 2009, the number will be in the 34,000 range. Some stimulus dollars and other federal funds are earmarked for hiring police. The question is how much money will be made available.
Cutting police now may well lessen the effectiveness of some of the stimulus programs, particularly in the inner city. We are not being financially realistic if we fail to address the need for public safety. This is why, despite the severe Depression of the 1930s, Mayor Fiorello LaGuardia did not reduce the size of the police force. I therefore urge that the NYPD staffing levels be set midway between 34,000 and 40,000.
My forecast is that if governments (federal, state and local) emulate President Roosevelt and Mayor LaGuardia by providing adequate support to law enforcement, there will be no significant increase in crime and the economy will benefit.
Thomas A. Reppetto is former president of the Citizens Crime Commission of New York City.