Here are the factual reasons why Army will cover Saturday night when Army and Notre Dame renew their storied rivalry in one of the nation’s great venues.
Army is eighth in the nation in rushing, averaging 272 yards per game. Notre Dame is 66th in rushing defense, giving up 155.2 yards per game.
Army plays an option offense similar to Navy’s. In Navy’s 35-17 win over the Irish, the Middies rolled for 367 yards on the ground. Notre Dame is playing with more confidence than it did against Navy, but not well enough to cover.
Now the X-factor reasons: Army, bowl-eligible for the first time since 1996, believes. For all the talk about Notre Dame’s vaunted subway alum, the game at Yankee Stadium is a training run from West Point. Army embraces what a win will mean.
“Obviously we’re a program that’s trying to say we belong,” Army coach Rich Ellerson said. “If we can routinely say Army and Notre Dame in the same sentence and think we’re talking about something that resembles a fair fight, that would have meant that we’ve joined the proper company. That would be huge for our self image.”
Go Army (+8).
TONIGHT
WASHINGTON (-21/2) over Ucla: Since pulling off a stunning 35-34 win over Oregon State, the Huskies have lost three straight, scoring a total of 30 points. But this is the last home game for QB Jake Locker and the seniors, and it’s a night game. The players will be stoked and the fans will be stewed.
SATURDAY
BOSTON COLLEGE (-61/2) over Virginia: Eagles can salvage their season with a win, which would make them bowl-eligible. This will be LB Mark Herzlich’s last home game. You want to talk emotion?
Penn State (-10) over
Indiana (in Washington, D.C.): Indiana hasn’t won a league game.
Wisconsin (-4) over
MICHIGAN: It doesn’t matter if Badgers starting RB John Clay plays. The Badgers are so deep in the backfield and the line is so powerful Pee Wee Herman could start.
Here’s what matters. Wisconsin has eyes on the Big Ten title. It would win the tiebreaker (higher ranking in the BCS Standings). Plus, Wisky is averaging 40 points per game and rang up 83 vs. Indiana last week. Michigan D is allowing 32 ppg. Give the points and parlay the over.
SOUTH FLORIDA (+21/2) over Pittsburgh: The last chance for the Big East to salvage some respect was for Pitt to go undefeated in league play.
Stanford (-61/2) over
CALIFORNIA: As long as Stanford’s band stays off the field.
Virginia Tech (-21/2) over MIAMI: The first ACC program to not fear Miami was Tech. Hokies are looking to go undefeated in ACC play. Miami will start Stephen Morris at quarterback. Jacory Harris is still feeling the effects of a concussion. FYI, Tech is 11-1 in its last 12 November away games.
IOWA (+3) over Ohio State: Hawkeyes are steamed after losing to Northwestern, which ended their bid for a share of the Big Ten title. Next best thing? End Ohio State’s bid.
LSU (-16) over Mississippi: Final home game for Bayou Bengals seniors. Jeremiah
MESSoli has led Ole Miss to a 1-5 conference record.
UConn (+4) over SYRACUSE: The Big East is a field-goal (final margin) league. Syracuse became bowl-eligible last week with a win over Rutgers on a last-minute field goal. Three of Syracuse’s four league wins have been by five or fewer points. UConn needs one more win to become bowl-eligible. The Huskies’ two league wins have been by three and two points. Take the points.
Rutgers (+121/2) over
CINCINNATI: How does a team (Cincinnati) that has lost three straight by a total of 106-47 become a 121⁄2-point favorite?
MARYLAND (+4) over Florida State: Call this a referendum on the future of Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen. He was all but fired around this time last season. Maryland, Florida State and NC State are all tied with 7-3 records and two losses in the ACC Atlantic Division.
Maryland hasn’t lost at home this season, but its three losses have been to speed teams (West Virginia, Clemson, Miami), which Florida State is. This is the biggest game in Maryland football since Friedgen was hired. A loss and there almost surely will be a new coach next year in College Park. A win and a decision still has to made as to whether Friedgen is the best man to keep Maryland in the upper tier of the ACC. It’s a night game, so the Terrapin faithful will be thoroughly marinated.
BAYLOR (+71/2) over Oklahoma: A wonderful season for Baylor can end on a ridiculously high note. Oklahoma is the only team Baylor has played at least five times and never beaten (0-19). Of course, Baylor hadn’t beaten Texas since 1997 until this season. The Sooners still have the showdown with Oklahoma State looming. This is Baylor’s final game of the regular season. Coach Art Briles and QB Robert Griffin III have changed the culture in Waco. Take the points and the dream.
TEXAS A&M (+21/2) over Nebraska: Aggies have won four straight by averaging 41 ppg. Night game at Kyle Field. Senior Night. Mobile quarterback. Blackshirts beware.
BEST BETS: Washington, Maryland, Texas A&M
LAST WEEK: 6-8-1 overall,
1-2 Best Bets
lenn.robbins@nypost.com