Joe Mauer (Getty Images)
There is a tricky bit of deduction that is occurring throughout baseball:
Is that horrible start by an established player just a bad opening en route to a familiarly successful campaign? Or is it a storm cloud, a warning that this is not simply the beginning, but perhaps the beginning of the end?
The conversation is most prevalent here, in New York, surrounding Derek Jeter. In his case, Jeter is underperforming his career norms by a substantial amount for a second straight year with his 37th birthday arriving next month.
Those pieces of information suggest this is not just about a troubling first
100-plus at-bats to a season. But rather a troubling continuation of an inevitable slide triggered by baseball old age.
The Jeter-esque worries are similar in Philadelphia (Raul Ibanez), Baltimore (Vladimir Guerrero) and San Francisco (Miguel Tejada). But this is not just about the birth certificate. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau should be in their primes. Instead, the Twins worry if injury has diminished their M&M Boys, a dramatic issue and not just for 2011.
No one would have been surprised if the NL MVP came down to Albert Pujols vs. Hanley Ramirez — they finished 1-2 as recently as 2009. Instead, St. Louis and Florida are winning without anything near the best of their elite players yet.
“Here is the thing,” an AL personnel man said. “At the end of the year, if we look back, we will find even players with good seasons who hit, say, .210 in July or pitched to a six-something ERA in August. But it doesn’t get noticed nearly as much because it blends in. When you do it now, that is all we have so it just hits you in the face. I would say the vast majority of guys who have begun slowly like Pujols, [Dan] Uggla, [Nick] Markakis and others are just having their bad months. But, you never really know.”
In honor (dishonor?) of Jeter, Hardball has assembled an All-Star (Non-Star?) team of players who have raised questions by how they have begun (notice the heavy tilt toward the AL):
CATCHER
Mauer. The Twins opened a new stadium in 2010 and raised their payroll to franchise-record levels. Mauer signed an eight-year, $184 million extension — the most ever given to someone not named Jeter or Alex Rodriguez — that kicked in this season.
Too bad for Minnesota, so did the nightmare scenario: Mauer is on the disabled list with yet another leg injury, re-igniting questions if he should be repositioned now to try and keep him healthy throughout the contract. Nevertheless, Minnesota loses a huge offensive advantage without Mauer catching. especially because last July (for Matt Capps) it dealt catcher-of-the-future Wilson Ramos, who is off well this year as a National.
Several executives mentioned Mauer’s lack of playing time in spring and stated catcher is just not a position you work into as the season goes along. “You can’t be on the Favre plan as a catcher,” one AL executive explained.
FIRST BASE
Morneau. An AL official said the Twins have lingering concerns about the concussion that cost Morneau the second half last year.
“I don’t know if it is the [big] ballpark or the concussion, but he is just not hitting the ball with the same authority,” an AL assistant GM said.
An AL scout said: “I would be worried about the bat speed, timing and aggressiveness.”
An NL scout who covers the Twins noted Morneau also recently had the flu and said “nagging injuries” were causing Morneau’s poor performance, “not declining skill.”
Mauer and Morneau had combined for one homer and Minnesota had the majors’ fewest runs. Heck, right now, Minnesota is getting poor results from its five highest-paid guys: Mauer, Morneau, Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer and Carl Pavano.
SECOND BASE
Gordon Beckham, White Sox. He looked like a cornerstone in his 2009 rookie campaign, but is struggling for a second straight year. An AL GM said, “He’s a nice player, but not a star as advertised.”
An AL personnel chief lumped Beckham with two other struggling youngsters, Detroit center fielder Austin Jackson and Pittsburgh third baseman Pedro Alvarez, in saying, “All are young and need to make some adjustments, but I will take them all and think they will be fine.”
SHORTSTOP
Jeter. Of the 12 scouts or officials contacted, none thought Jeter would approach his old self. An AL scout was most optimistic, saying, “I think he still might be bothered by how his [contract] negotiations went down in the offseason. I think he will get his head back right and the warm weather will help him. There is something left, but not an elite player.”
Nevertheless, an NL scout said of Jeter, “He is pretty much done. The success of middle infielders over 35 is not strong. I think the Yanks are going to regret that deal.”
THIRD BASE
Mark Reynolds, Orioles. The Reynolds tradeoff was power in exchange for record strikeout numbers. But in the switch from Arizona to Baltimore, his power has not immediately translated. One personnel guy said Reynolds is a guess hitter whose power will translate as he better learns a new league. An AL executive said, “The lack of contact and ability to manipulate the barrel [of the bat] becomes an even bigger issue when he is consistently facing better stuff, which he is in the AL East.”
LEFT FIELD
Carl Crawford, Red Sox. Rays officials wondered if Crawford could handle emotionally a baseball-crazy big city, especially after signing a huge contract (seven years, $142 million). An AL personnel man said: “I wonder if [Boston] is where his heart was at. The intrusiveness that you can feel in a big city, that bothers him.”
If Crawford’s stumbles persist, could it impact the free-agent price of Jose Reyes as teams shy away from big money for speed players with modest power?
CENTER FIELD
Alex Rios, White Sox. Is there a bigger development in the majors over the past
21 months than Toronto lopping the onerous long-term contracts of Rios and Vernon Wells; deals that saved roughly $148 million in future commitments? Rios remains an enigma: Talented, but without the numbers to match. Wells is in the Jeter class: hinting at being done.
“The other teams in the AL East wish [Toronto] still had those contracts,” an AL personnel man said. “Without those contracts, [the Jays] have been able to sign the Cuban shortstop [Adeiny Hechavarria for $10 million] and be aggressive in the draft. You look what they have done and you say, ‘Here come the Jays.’ ”
RIGHT FIELD
Magglio Ordonez, Tigers. In the category with Jeter, Guerrero, Tejada, Wells, Jorge Posada and Chone Figgins — older players trending the wrong way for more than just this season.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Adam Dunn, White Sox. The comparisons to Pat Burrell (Phillies to Rays) were abundant: A guy who struggled after reluctantly switching from the NL and playing the field to the AL and DHing for the money. But an AL scout put Dunn, Crawford, Wells and Uggla into one group saying, “It is a tough adjustment for players who have spent all or the majority of their career with one organization or league and had huge success to change. Give these players a mulligan until midseason.”
STARTER
Javier Vazquez, Marlins. You can see how volatile it is to make a snap judgment because Francisco Liriano arguably was the majors’ worst starter before his no-hitter last week. But Vazquez’s stuff is as tepid as last year, even in a big NL park. He had walked more (21) than he had struck out (16).
RELIEVER
Rafael Soriano, Yankees/Joaquin Benoit, Tigers. After forming the majors’ best 1-2 finishing touch for Tampa Bay last year, Soriano and Benoit signed the largest free-agent contracts last offseason among relievers switching teams. In 2010, they allowed 21 earned runs in 1222⁄3 innings combined; going into the weekend they had allowed 19 earned runs in 24 innings.
In describing the duo, one AL executive summarized: “Soft makeup plus financial security usually does not bring a good result.”
joel.sherman@nypost.com