The Yankees win a World Series matchup with the Phillies two out of every three times, according to simulations by AccuScore.com.
The Web site projects a 66 percent chance for the Yankees to win the Series, compared to 34 percent for the defending champion Phillies.
The Yankees’ advantage is most pronounced in Games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium, where CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have the edge over Phillies starters Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.
AccuScore gives Sabathia a 65 percent win chance over the Phillies’ top pitcher, Lee, and Burnett a 64 percent chance to defeat Hamels, last year’s World Series MVP.
Lee has pitched very well against the Yankees in recent outings; over his past three starts he has gone 19 innings, allowing four runs with 16 strikeouts. Lee being a southpaw could play a factor in neutralizing the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium.
The Phillies also are familiar with Sabathia because of his time spent in Milwaukee last season. That experience should help them in Game 1.
If Hamels were performing as he did last postseason, his spread would be much closer. In three starts this postseason, Hamels has looked below average, allowing 11 earned runs and six home runs in 14-2/3 innings.
One thing Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will have to ponder is allowing Pedro Martinez to pitch Game 2 and shifting Hamels to Game 3. Martinez obviously has plenty of experience pitching in New York and against the Yankees, and Hamels has pitched better at home than on the road this season. The one thing that would do is shift Hamels to a potential Game 7, a role the Phillies can’t be comfortable with based on his current form.
Another issue for Philadelphia will be in the latter innings in the bullpen. Manuel only has one experienced lefty, Scott Eyre, to combat Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Robinson Cano. Manuel also will have limited ability to turn around switch-hitters Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada; all three hit for more power from the left side.
Rookie Antonio Bastardo could be included on the roster for this reason, but he faced one batter in the NLCS, allowing a hit, and allowed 17 earned runs in 23-2/3 regular-season innings. Closer Brad Lidge also has to remain a question mark despite his three solid outings against the Dodgers.
The Yankees are not without flaws. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes were expected to be two power arms to bridge the later innings to Mariano Rivera. Things have not worked out that way; the two young right-handers have allowed 16 hits and four earned runs in eight innings of combined postseason work.
The Yankees could have the same problem as the Phillies against lefties. Philadelphia’s featured hitters (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibañez) are left-handed. Phil Coke has been solid in his role against lefties, allowing three hits in his last 8-2/3 innings.
Joe Girardi’s penchant for changing pitchers according to left-right matchups and late-inning pinch-running could create unnecessary handicaps for the Yankees as well, especially in the National League park without a pitcher’s spot in the lineup.
Based on the following pitching matchups, here are the win percentages as forecast by AccuScore in more than 10,000 simulations:
Game 1 – Sabathia (65) vs. Lee (35)
Game 2 – Burnett (64) vs. Hamels (36)
Game 3 – Martinez (51) vs. Pettitte (49)
Game 4 – Blanton (52) vs. Gaudin (48)
Game 5 – Lee (50) vs. Sabathia (50)
Game 6 – Burnett (64) vs. Hamels (36)
Game 7 – Pettitte (59) vs. Martinez (41)