In the fifth of a six-part series to get you prepared for your fantasy draft, Roto Files analyzes catchers and closers. Next week: sleepers.
Forget fantasy baseball, Mauer and Mo are the stars of something more like fairy-tale baseball.
Twins backstop Joe Mauer is the Catcher Prince Charming, fulfilling the promise of a No. 1 pick, already an MVP, two-time Gold Glover and three-time batting champion at age 26. The local boy turned likable superstar is about to become rich beyond your wildest dreams.
Yankees closer Mariano Rivera seemingly is blessed with the ability to postpone the effects of aging. Call him WHIP Van Winkle. Explorers scoured North America for the fountain of youth; credit Rivera with the save, he located it in a bullpen in The Bronx.
The two players top Roto Files’ list at their respective positions entering this season. Mauer’s numbers last year (.365, 28 HRs, 96 RBIs, 94 runs, .444 on-base) made him the most valuable commodity of all — a catcher who hits just as well as the very best outfielders and first basemen . . . ever.
But he can’t be expected to repeat that performance, because his slugging numbers so far surpassed his career norms that he reasonably must regress, and because the wear-and-tear of his position will cost him 15 games at the very least. If you hedge a little on the optimistic projection of a .330 average and 25 homers, Mauer is best valued in the late first round or early second, not the mid-first round as some have suggested.
Rivera, for the simple reason of his robotic consistency, should be the first relief pitcher taken, near Round 5. Embarking on his age-40 season, he will throw that same pitch with that same motion and put up the same numbers (sub-2.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, 40 saves) as when he was 35 or 30.
If you’re leaning toward the Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton or Jonathan Papelbon of the Red Sox for the comfort of a birthdate in the 1980s and the strikeout potential in their fresher right arms, consider: At their best, they are merely Rivera’s equals, and Rivera is the closest thing in the sport to a sure thing.
CATCHER UP
The next three best fantasy catchers share with Mauer unusual power for the position.
Victor Martinez, a lifetime .299 hitter, will drive in plenty of runs in the middle of Boston’s order and can steal extra at-bats playing at first (that’s all he will steal). Burly Brian McCann has a baseline of 20 HRs and 90 RBIs anchoring the Braves’ offense.
A few rounds later, Orioles star-in-the-making Matt Wieters has a high ceiling (.355 and 27 HRs in one full minor league season), but don’t buy the hype wholesale (Sports Illustrated cover jinx, anyone?), the kid’s barely left the nest.
INVEST PROTECTOR
Don’t venture another catcher before Round 12. Is 38-year-old Jorge Posada’s 20-homer potential significantly greater than emerging Diamondback Miguel Montero’s or talented but injury-prone Pirate Ryan Doumit’s or San Francisco cleanup candidate Bengie Molina’s?
Along with a few others, they are close to interchangeable — fill needs elsewhere and come back to grab a starter.
FIREMEN SALE
Broxton’s fluky seven wins last year inflated his worth and Papelbon’s rising WHIP is one strike against, but they’re both solid top 75 selections. If healthy, the Royals’ Joakim Soria is just as dominant.
The offensively challenged Mets, Padres and A’s will be winning close ones, which bodes well for the save totals of Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell and Andrew Bailey, respectively, but Bell for one seems due for a slump. Bounceback seasons from Brad Lidge (Phillies) and Billy Wagner (Braves) could pay huge dividends. Rays import Rafael Soriano is a great under-the-radar buy. The Twins’ Joe Nathan (torn elbow ligament) is off the board.
jlehman@nypost.com