Cole Hamels (REUTERS)
Matt Garza (CSM /Landov)
The Phillies have almost no chance to reach the postseason.
It is more than just the eyesight test. To open the second half, Coolstandings.com — based on thousands of simulations of the season — gave the Phillies a 0.7 percent chance of being even one of the two wild cards.
The computers at Baseball Prospectus were more charitable — if by “more” you mean the difference between slim and simmer. At BP, the Phillies were bestowed a 0.8-percent postseason likelihood.
At least the Phillies can say they aren’t the Rockies, Padres, Cubs, Astros, Mariners, Twins or Royals, all of whom were literally given no shot — zero — of making the playoffs by BP.
Keep in mind these are just projections and that projections going into September 2011 couldn’t have been rosier for Boston and Atlanta or gloomier for Tampa Bay and St. Louis. It feels as if 24/7/365 social media has taken us to yet another level of relentless streams of pressure on teams and, because of that, perhaps blowing big leads will become more commonplace.
Also, BP’s midseason projections gave the Yankees a 93.7 percent chance of winning the division and 99.2 of being no worse than a wild card, and that just feels too high (the Mets were 10.2/27.2). Even more dubious was that the White Sox were given a 75.2 percent projection to win the AL Central, the Indians actually were second at 12.6 and the Tigers third at 12.2. Despite a half of troubling play, Detroit still is viewed within the industry as the strong favorite in the division.
These projections are malleable, pushed one way or another by winning or losing streaks. Just a week ago, for example, the Phils had a 3.5-percent chance at the playoffs. Nevertheless, only in a “Dumb and Dumber” world would even the most optimistic Phillies fan look at a 3.5-percent likelihood and brag, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
This dim playoff prognosis strongly suggests the Phillies should become sellers in this month’s trade market, and if that is the case, they instantly become the main attraction because Cole Hamels would become the best player available.
The Phillies already have sent out feelers to determine interest in the All-Star lefty and could be forced to become a seller if their poor play continues early in the second half. Nevertheless, a pretty strong sentiment remains among outside executives that Philadelphia is more inclined to work feverishly to re-sign Hamels than trade him because:
1 The Phillies have joined the Yankees and Red Sox in mega-team land. Their run of five straight NL East titles has led to full houses and strong TV ratings. But to keep that passion the Phillies, like the Yankees and Red Sox, have satiated fans by importing or retaining stars. Those are usually older, high-salaried players more susceptible to breaking down physically or statistically — and taking a team with them. The Phillies are enduring this firsthand with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay.
The organizational DNA is to go for it, especially because it meshes with a business plan that would frown on disenchanting paying customers by trading homegrown stars in their prime.
“Recent history and my gut tell me they re-sign [Hamels] before free agency,” and NL personnel man said.
2 The Phillies could attempt the baseball equivalent of having their cake and eating it too by trading Hamels for prospects then trying to re-sign him in the offseason. But once a high-end player is free, prices tend to zoom higher and higher. And this is at a moment when the recently sold Dodgers are throwing around money, and Hamels is a Southern California native.
As another NL personnel chief said, “Seeing what the Dodgers did with Yasiel Puig (signing the Cuban free agent for $42 million), whom they admit they never saw in person, is kind of scary.”
Translation: If they doled out $42 million for a guy they never had seen, what would they pay to bring home a World Series hero to team with Clayton Kershaw?
3 The most important factor dimming the likelihood of a Phillies trade is that it is harder than ever to land a commensurate package for a star in his walk year. Rule changes in the new collective bargaining agreement mean teams no longer can acquire a player in his walk year and get draft-pick compensation if the player signs elsewhere as a free agent. Thus, the model is gone by which Milwaukee obtained CC Sabathia during the 2008 season for prospects, but then got draft picks to replenish the farm when Sabathia signed with the Yankees.
This is why teams might find the Cubs’ Matt Garza more appealing. He is inferior to Hamels, but he cannot be a free agent until after the 2013 season. Thus, an acquiring team would get 1 1⁄2 years of service, plus — because he would spend a complete 2013 with the new club, that organization could get draft compensation.
“I think the market for rentals will not be robust,” one NL general manager said, echoing a theme from multiple front-office personnel. “Without the draft pick value traveling to the renting team, I just don’t think teams will trade such a big chunk of their future for 14 starts of Hamels. I think the Phillies are in a tough spot. Their reload phase will be a little trickier given the new rules.”
The Phillies would need to find a buyer desperate enough to buck the group-think against surrendering top prospects. The two most obvious matches would be Texas and Detroit. The Rangers have lost consecutive World Series, need to win one or have this season viewed as a failure, and they currently have a rash injuries to starting pitchers.
Aging Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has demonstrated little restraint in wanting a championship before he dies, as was demonstrated by his out-of-nowhere signing of Prince Fielder for $214 million. Detroit is surprisingly vulnerable in the AL Central because it has nothing resembling a No. 2 starter
behind Justin Verlander.
Also, Philadelphia clearly wants a third base prospect ready to play now, and in Mike Olt (Texas) and Nick Castellanos (Detroit), the Rangers and Tigers have two of the best — they were ranked 11th and 12th, respectively, in Baseball America’s midseason Top 50 prospect list.
Remember, the Giants were willing to give the Mets an elite prospect (Zack Wheeler) last July in exchange for Carlos Beltran, who by contractual provision could not be offered arbitration and, thus, could not bring draft pick compensation to San Francisco. Still, of the six executives I queried, none thought a prospect as good as Olt or Castellanos would move for a rental player without draft compensation.
That is why the Phillies are trying to make a last-ditch effort to retain Hamels long term. If that fails, it will be interesting to see if Philadelphia — and its fans — can tolerate moving a championship hero such as Hamels for a good, but not great package. That is something the Phillies will have to seriously consider if Hamels does not re-sign and the playoff odds do not get significantly better — and soon.
joel.sherman@nypost.com