Today
Ravens (+9) over PATRIOTS; OVER 51 1/2: One year after their most-fortunate escape in the AFC Championship against this opponent, Groundhog Day comes early for the Pats — though an identical outcome is anything but guaranteed.
Yes, the Ravens defense is one year older — and though Ray Lewis’ precise level of performance can be debated, his leadership and emotional keynoting is beyond dispute. But this Baltimore bunch was able to pace itself through December to freshen up and get healthy for this, and took full advantage of the Broncos’ multiple imbedded flaws to earn its way here.
What Lewis didn’t accomplish, Tyrell Suggs, Ed Reed, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith did, leaving the Broncos at home by the fireside. Tom Brady isn’t the only accomplished deep-ball artist here, given Flacco already has won five league postseason road games in his career — no one in league history has won more (only Eli Manning has as many). Should Rice be successful in establishing ground tempo with an early can-opener up-the-middle run or three, the task of the other Ravens offensive skill people is simplified.
Tom Brady hardly is helpless here, but the absence of TE Ron Gronkowski makes Brady’s task more challenging, especially when of all possible AFC opponents, no one is less intimidated by the Patriots’ mystique than are the Ravens, who have played New England stiff (when they haven’t been beating the hell out of them) in their previous half-dozen meetings.
So, in a spot with no quarter asked and none given, go with the side harboring the hunger and the revenge intangibles … a side more than capable of accomplishing what the scenario facilitates. Flacco, the guy who wound up at Delaware after justifiably being unwilling to wait to play for Dave Wannstedt in a run-oriented offense at Pitt, gets the latest laugh in this never-ending soap opera. There is concern over last week’s overtime exertions, but Baltimore will rack up their points, and it’s up to the Pats to keep pace. Bill Belichick’s out there trying to win this game, and isn’t worried about anyone’s nine-point lay.
Ravens, 34-31.
FALCONS (+4) over 49ers; UNDER 49: Remember the last time there was a road favorite of this magnitude on this particular NFL weekend? ’Twas the Niners, in the icebox that was Soldier Field in the NFC title game capping the 1988 campaign. We liked the Bears, given the minus-26 degree windchill reading at kick, but wound up disappointed as Joe Montana rolled, 28-3. The Niners haven’t won a road playoff game since.
Last week’s Atlanta NFC semifinal squeaker over the Seahawks was a tricky read. Seattle looked groggy early, in what was for them a 10 a.m. start, and Pete Carroll disdained easy opening-half placement points (to his eventual sorrow), but once Falcons DE John Abraham had to retire with his sprained ankle, Seattle finished like Zenyatta to just miss.
Atlanta has some reasonable bases for optimism. QB Matt Ryan’s dual receiving threats of Roddy White (good) and Julio Jones (much better) are a genuine threat to 49ers domination. Niners QB Colin Kaepernick’s body language in domes has been awkward, and the related indoor performances have been erratic.
But the schematic matchups are grave cause for concern. Once Seattle settled, their read-option attack gave the Falcons endless grief … understandable, given Atlanta’s horrid ground defense. Cam Newton and the Panthers scored 58 points on the Falcons in two games — including 28 in the Georgia Dome. On the other side of the ball … with isolated exceptions, Atlanta’s offensive proficiency against capable 3-4 defenses was uneven, though Atlanta survived on the scoreboard in those instances.
Abraham’s expected to play here, but how close to 100 percent he is — and how long he’ll be effective — are open questions. Michael Crabtree’s slated to play, too, despite ongoing investigation of alleged sexual assault. Though to be reckoned with within the read-option, and with remarkable footspeed, given his size, Kaepernick can be overly optimistic when launching the football. The Packers inexplicably played man defense against him, and it’s unlikely Mike Nolan — San Francisco’s defensive coordinator and former Niners head coach — will be similarly trapped.
Not confident in Mike Smith’s in-game management under time pressure, but anticipate a chaotic result, much like last season’s Niners/Saints frenzy. Close! Timing is everything.
49ers, 24-21.
LAST WEEK: 1-3 games; 2-2 over/unders.
POSTSEASON: 4-4, 4-4.
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @rich_witt1.