Did you happen to find Mike Wallace on the waiver wire this week? Does your Week 2 opponent have Leonard Hankerson in its lineup? Were you forced to have a conversation regarding whether to start Joique Bell over Frank Gore?
These are the symptoms of what the Tracker calls a SWOR (Severe Week 1 OverReaction). Every once in a while, there is a player whose fantasy value gets completely wrecked in Week 1 for reasons other than injury, but they are so few, we can’t even think of one.
The players who come the closest to that category this season are Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and Giants RB David Wilson.
Big Ben we’re not afraid to replace, for a couple reasons, the main one being the sorry state of his offensive line, receiving corps and running game — other than that, the offense should be fine. Also, you shouldn’t have drafted Roethlisberger to be your starter, meaning you are replacing a backup with, say, Philip Rivers or Matt Schaub, rather than giving up on a player who is in your lineup every week.
If the Giants had another option, maybe we would be concerned. Brandon Jacobs may turn into a TD vulture in a few weeks, but Wilson was slated to enter the season alongside one of those (the injured Andre Brown).
If you have Wilson, stick with him. If you picked up Jacobs, don’t play him for at least a couple of weeks and then, only in a pinch. The Giants, the Tracker contends, did not add him solely because of Wilson’s fumblefest. They were going to add a veteran back after the opener regardless, waiting until Week 2 for financial reasons.
A trend easier to spot in Week 1 than a fantasy bust is a potential sleeper. Sure, you have to weed out the likely one-week wonders — Hankerson, Eddie Royal, et al. — to identify those with better upside.
Everyone was jumping on Broncos TE Julius Thomas this week. The Tracker liked what we saw in Ravens WR Marlon Brown and Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins. And though we’re not ready to start Bell over Gore just yet, the big body behind Reggie Bush is on our radar.
Big Weeks
Michael Vick, QB, Eagles, vs. Chargers
You probably drafted Vick to be your backup, but now he must be considered for a starting spot every week — if for no other reason than volume. The Chargers pass D, on East Coast at 1 p.m., should offer little resistance.
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins, vs. Colts
Miserable Week 1 (three yards on 10 carries in Cleveland). But Colts defense, which was shredded by Raiders, should be much easier to navigate than stout Browns unit.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs, vs. Cowboys
Dallas defense forced a lot of turnovers in opening win over Giants, but gave up a lot of yards as well. Bowe should post solid numbers, particularly in PPR format.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns, vs. Ravens
With few other weapons at the disposal of Browns QB Brandon Weeden, Cameron will get some looks, particularly near the end zone — as infrequent as that may be.
Small Weaks
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys, at Chiefs
Looked good in Week 1, but the Tracker smells a stinker ahead, on the road vs. underrated opponent that was marvelous on defense in Week 1.
Ray Rice, RB, Ravens, vs. Browns
This should shape up a low-scoring affair, and Rice’s fantasy numbers will take the punishment. If only you could start a punter.
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers, at Seahawks
We’re not down on Boldin, this is more of expectation control. Seattle is one of league’s toughest defenses. If Boldin gets a third of last week’s numbers (208 yards, one TD), feel lucky. If he scores, you’ve hit jackpot.
Miami, DEF/ST, Dolphins, at Colts
Perhaps only the Chiefs were more impressive than the Dolphins defensively in Week 1. But after stifling the Browns in its opener, Miami will face a much more competent attack from Andrew Luck and the Colts.