IF there’s one lesson to be learned about championship-game weekend, it’s to go with the teams you expect to win the games outright and forget about the point spread. That may be tough to do today with the Rams favored by 14 over the Bucs and Jags giving seven to the Titans.
You can look it up, as we did in the useful Sports Reporter tout sheet. There we learn that in the 58 AFC and NFC title games since 1970, after the merger, the spread has come into play only three times.
Sixteen underdogs have won outright (including the Super Bowl champion Giants getting eight from the threepeat-seeking Niners, 15-13, in 1991), there was one pick ’em game and 38 times the favorite won and covered. The only exceptions were in 1983-84, when the Redskins were favored by 10 and beat the Niners 24-21; in 1991-92, when the Bills were -11½ but managed just a 10-7 win over Denver; and in 1995-96, when the Steelers, -111/2, beat the Colts 20-16.
So the recommendation here is if you like the underdogs, go with them, but only if you think they can win outright.
ONE other trend topic that’s hot this week is the notion that it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season. Well, not exactly. Since 1970, there have been 41 playoff games that were third meetings. Of those, 29 involved clubs that split in the regular season. Of the other 12, seven completed the sweep.
However, as WFAN’s Joe Benigno points out, all of those sweeping teams won the playoff game at home (1982 season, Dolphins over Jets; 1986, Giants over Skins; 1991, Chiefs over Raiders; 1993, Raiders over Broncos; 1994, Steelers over Browns; 1997, Packers over Bucs and Patriots over Dolphins). The Titans are trying to pull off the feat on the road.
As for the Rams, they are 9-0 at the Trans World Dome this season and have covered each time.