Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

How cost-cutting Yankees can contend in 2014

Twelve months from now, you are going to want to be a free agent.

Can Yankees fans, not exactly connoisseurs of delayed gratification, wait? Because the payoff for austerity now, will be the Yankees going financially bonkers a year from now.

In 2014, though, they will prioritize dropping under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold. That will save some $60 million between payroll reduction, paying zero in tax for the first time since it was first installed in 2003 and receiving several million dollars in revenue sharing reallocation (which only comes if a team is under the threshold).

It also means resetting the levy if they go over the threshold in future years. So rather than pay 50 percent, the Yankees would start over at 17.5 percent if they go beyond $189 million in 2015.

Which is why you want to be a free agent after next year. The Yankees missed the playoffs this year. If that happens again in 2014 — and perhaps even if it doesn’t — they will want to reinvigorate their fan base by importing stars.

Maybe the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and Tigers’ Max Scherzer re-sign before then; if not, expect the Yankees to bid like crazy. Expect them to be hyper-aggressive with veteran Japanese and Cubans coming to the States. Expect them to be more willing to take on big contracts in trades. In other words, a return to more familiar Yankees terrain.

But what about now?

It might be a minority opinion, but the Yankees can field a contender in 2014 on $189 million. As Joe Girardi said, “It’s not like we are cutting our payroll down to $60 million.”

It will require better health (notably for Mark Teixeira) plus Fredric Horowitz upholding Alex Rodriguez’s suspension, or else the Yankees have to allocate $33.5 million (his salary plus a potential $6 million bonus for passing Willie Mays’ career homer total) for A-Rod. In that scenario, they are going to be too frozen financially to do much.

I think the Yankees could approach 750 runs with an offense that looks something like this in 2014: Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter (DH), Robinson Cano, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Teixeira, Eric Chavez, Francisco Cervelli and Brendan Ryan. Their rotation could be CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda and Dan Haren. And there could still be enough money to find a closer-type to serve as insurance for David Robertson.

Some keys:

Re-sign Cano: The back years of his contract probably will be trouble, but by the time the Yankees get there A-Rod, Sabathia and Teixeira will be gone. Say eight years, $200 million, then defer enough to get the average annual value down to about $23 million to help with the luxury tax.

Offer Curtis Granderson the tender: That is around $13.8 million. If he accepts, he plays right field next year on a one-year contract. If healthy, he remains a threat to hit 30-40 homers.
If he rejects, the Yankees should go after Beltran on, say, a two-year, $26 million deal to play 100 games in right and 50 at DH. He is better than Granderson. Plus, the Yankees really missed the diversity of switch-hitters this year, so having Beltran and Teixeira would help. St. Louis might tender Beltran, which means the Yankees would lose their first-round pick if they sign him. But they would gain a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds when Granderson signs elsewhere.

Fix shortstop: The Yanks will not know for months what they have with Jeter. But even in the best scenario, they probably will need a shortstop who can start 50 games and play defense late if Jeter’s range falters further. Ryan has confirmed he is a defensive whiz. He can probably be re-signed for $1-$2 million. It is a security blanket.

Fix third base: This assumes A-Rod is not around. The Yanks should see if the Padres are ready to trade Chase Headley a year from free agency. He probably isn’t the guy who nearly won the 2012 NL MVP, but he probably is better than this year when he played with a torn meniscus. Would an offer of Mason Williams, Jose Ramirez and Dellin Betances get it done for a switch-hitter who would be a 25-homer staple in the Stadium?

If not, would a platoon of the lefty Chavez and righty Juan Uribe (both are free agents) works. Chavez probably costs about $3 million. Uribe might take a two-year deal in the $12 million-ish range, which potentially removes the Yanks.

Which brings us to Eduardo Nunez.

He is brittle and plays awkwardly. But he hit the ball consistently hard in the second half and played third base surprisingly well, and for a roster lacking youth and athleticism the 26-year-old offers both. The Yanks are going to need to save money and get surprising help from somewhere. How about Nunez?

Save money at catcher: Miguel Montero will have four years at $50 million left on his contract, and the Yanks have to at least make a call to see if Arizona will give up on him after a down 2013. His lefty power would play at the Stadium.

Brian McCann is an enticing catcher/DH, but his age and price may be too worrisome for the Yanks.

Again, there are going to be places the Yankees need to save dough in 2014. So they will hope the offense Cervelli and Austin Romine showed in spurts in 2013 plays in 2014, and J.R. Murphy continues to grow at Triple-A.

Find a starter: The rotation would be filled with hope — and prayers. That CC Sabathia, a year removed from elbow surgery and having rediscovered his arm slot late in 2013, returns to being a sturdy, top-of-the-rotation force. That Hiroki Kuroda agrees to come back for one more year and still has it despite turning 39 in February. That the second half Ivan Nova is for real. That Michael Pineda finally provides the Yanks a quality starter. And that David Phelps, Adam Warren, Brett Marshall, David Huff and Vidal Nuno can offer back-end depth.

There would be greater comfort if the Yankees could find a helpful veteran, as they did with Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in 2011. They have always liked Haren, who had only glimpses of his former excellence this year for Washington. The free agent’s strike-throwing penchant will attract the Yanks.

Find help for Robertson: The Yankees would love to move Ichiro Suzuki’s $6.5 million 2014 salary and perhaps, if they add a prospect, they could get a like salary back such as San Diego’s Huston Street or Arizona’s J.J. Putz. The Yanks have young relievers they like, such as Tommy Kahnle. But the transition from Mariano Rivera would be easier if there were a proven fall-back position in case Robertson cannot handle the ninth inning.