AL Groh certainly knows his team. Before the opener, he said the Jets would be a tough, resilient bunch and that’s exactly what they’ve been in posting fourth-quarter comeback wins against the Packers and Pats.
Problem is, Jets have been playing so close to the edge, this might be the week they fall over it. There should never be any such thing as a letdown against a division rival like the Bills, but this game is sandwiched between Belichick and Keyshawn. Buffalo also has a huge edge in the return game, last year’s playoff miracle in Tennessee aside, and it’s tough starting drives at the 18 and defending from the 35 all day.
Bills backers have reason for concern, too. They’re 2-0, but have yet to prove their mettle on the road. And with Antowain Smith averaging 2 yards a carry and Rob Johnson having been sacked eight times, this looks like an offense the Jets can bottle up.
It’ll be another tight one, the kind the Jets already have shown they can win.The pick: Jets -1.
Giants (+21/2) over BEARS
Visit to winless Bears is in the middle of divisional games against Eagles and Skins is usually a letdown situation. However, Giants aren’t talking big, just playing big, which is good sign. And while Bears have to rush Brian Urlacher into starting LB role because of injuries, Giants get back Pete Mitchell and Sam Garnes.
RAMS (-161/2) over 49ers
Rams beat Niners by 22 and 16 last year and those margins hardly begin to pay rivals back for decades of brutal beatings. Kurt Warner will be able to put about as many points on board as he wants. Key to cover is St. Louis defense, which last year scored TDs of its own but has been horrible so far.
Eagles (+41/2) over PACKERS
Eagles are back in familiar underdog role after spitting bit as fave against Jints. Andy Reid knows most of Brett Favre’s tricks, and Favre’s ailing right elbow isn’t getting any better.
Falcons (+6) over PANTHERS
In NFL, where things change so drastically from week to week, it’s usually good practice to take team coming off blowout loss against one coming off blowout win. That would mean Falcons here. Atlanta’s always dangerous when Chris Chandler’s healthy.
Buccaneers (-3) over LIONS
Ari, our resident Lions guru, was right on with pick of his boys over Redskins last week. Now Ari says Lions have no shot against bigger, stronger, tougher Bucs. He says neither Terry Fair nor Bryant Westbrook can cover Keyshawn Johnson, and points out Lions have no offensive TDs in two games.
Steelers (-21/2) over BROWNS
All three of New Browns’ wins have come on road. Steelers have had extra week to dwell on how bad they were in 16-0 loss to Ravens. Offense shouldn’t be this terrible with Jerome Bettis, Troy Edwards and Plaxico Burress, but QB play has been atrocious. If they lose this, they’ll be lucky to go 2-14.
JAGUARS (-13) over Bengals
Although Jaguars don’t always show appetite for destruction, they should this week after bitter loss to Ravens. Bengals got crushed at home by Browns and may be worse than ever, which is saying something. This one has 41-3 written all over it.
CHIEFS (-5) over Chargers
Last three meetings between these two teams at Arrowhead have resulted in KC wins of 31-3, 23-7 and 34-0. That’s 84-10 if you’re scoring at home. After toughies against Colts and Titans, it’ll be interesting to see how Chiefs do against lesser competition.
RAIDERS (-3) over Broncos
Best game of the weekend. No worry about Raider mental letdown during Bronco week. Not possible. And while Bronco offense has been clicking early, you have to wonder if ailing Terrell Davis and Ed McCaffrey will be available all afternoon.
PATRIOTS (-11/2) over Vikings
Was expecting to get at least a field goal with an 0-2 against a 2-0, and it’s hard to get juiced up about the “genius” of Bill Belichick after the collapse at the Jets. But his defenses have always been hell on young QBs and Pats already will be playing for their playoff lives.
Saints (+6) over SEAHAWKS
Jon Kitna has 299 yards passing in two games, with six INTs, and now he goes up against Saint D with seven sacks which has allowed microscopic 187 yards per game. Hawks may get desperation win at home, but spread is nice cushion.
DOLPHINS (+21/2) over Ravens
Ravens finally got their first win over Jags, but now what? A letdown, perhaps? Both teams will be short of wideouts, with Qadry Ismail out for Baltimore and Tony Martin and O.J. McDuffie down for Miami. Fish tough at home, where they opened with 23-0 win over Seattle.
MONDAY NIGHT
Cowboys (+101/2) over REDSKINS
Michael Westbrook is lost for season, and suddenly, Brad Johnson is sitting there with 1 TD, 4 INTs, no go-to WR and owner’s pet Jeff George holding clipboard. Though Dallas is dreadful, it’s nice to get double-digit points on MNF, where the first two games have been barnburners.
BEST BETS: Bucs, Giants, Patriots LAST WEEK: 8-6-1. BEST BETS: 2-1.