TORONTO — This year’s Oscars race is beginning to come into focus. It’s time for early predictions after seeing some of the top contenders at the Toronto Film Festival — some after earlier exposure at festivals in Telluride and Venice. Here are 10 films with a shot at Oscar gold.
“12 Years a Slave” — After pretty much universal raves in Telluride, this powerful film — based on a true story — is clearly the front-runner in the Best Picture race at this point, living up to its buzz as the “Schindler’s List” of slavery movies. Chiwetel Ejiofor tops the list of Best Actor contenders for his stunning turn as a free black man from upstate New York who is abducted and sold into slavery in Georgia in 1841. Director Steve McQueen, and supporting actors Michael Fassbender, as a brutal slaveowner, and Lupita Nyong’o, as his mistress, are also likely nominees. A possible obstacle to clinching Best Picture is the film’s unsparing depiction of violence. (Oct. 18)
“Gravity’’ — A huge favorite in Toronto, Alfonso Cuarón’s viscerally gripping sci-fi drama about a pair of astronauts stranded in space is visually stunning. At the very least, it will gain another Best Actress nomination for Sandra Bullock (who won for “The Blind Side’’). Co-star George Clooney has a much smaller role in this unusual combination of popcorn and high art that’s been compared to “2001: A Space Odyssey.’’ (Oct. 4)
“August: Osage County’’ — Although it didn’t quite live up to expectations here, the star-laden adaptation of Tracy Letts’ Pulitzer-winning play features yet another powerful performance by multiple Oscar winner Meryl Streep as the mother of all dysfunctional mothers. Julia Roberts does her best screen work in years as the daughter who stands up to her. But she’s facing formidable Best Supporting Actress competition from veteran character performer Margo Martindale, who kills as her venal aunt. John Wells’s direction is just not Oscar-caliber, though the film will get a big Best Picture push from the Weinstein Co. (Dec. 25)
“The Fifth Estate’’ — Bill Condon’s Toronto opener also disappointed. The DreamWorks/Disney saga of WikiLeaks’ rise plays much like a weaker version of “The Social Network,’’ with creepy and paranoid founder Julian Assange (the charismatic Benedict Cumberbatch, perhaps the film’s only shot at an Oscar) constantly screwing over his doggedly loyal acolyte (Daniel Brühl). (Oct. 18)
“Dallas Buyers Club’’ — Matthew McConaughey gives another extraordinary performance in Jean-Marc Vallée’s compelling real-life tale as a homophobic rodeo rider who’s diagnosed with HIV in 1985 and battles the government and medical establishment over drug therapies. Expect a Best Supporting Actor nod for Jared Leto for his touching turn as a drug-addicted transsexual who becomes McConaughey’s friend and business partner. (Nov. 1)
“Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” — Idris Elba has a shot at a Best Actor nom for his performance as the South African icon. (Nov. 29)
“Rush’’ — In another real-life role, Chris Hemsworth should be in the Best Actor race as hedonistic 1970s Formula One racer James Hunt in Ron Howard’s feature. (Sept. 27)
“Philomena’’ — There’s serious Best Actress buzz surrounding Judi Dench in the true story of a woman who tries to find the son she was forced by Catholic nuns to put up for adoption decades earlier. (Dec. 25)
“Prisoners’’ — The powerhouse cast in Denis Villeneuve’s compulsively watchable crime drama should earn multiple nods: Hugh Jackman does his career-best work as the vigilante father of a kidnapped girl, and Jake Gyllenhaal is fine as the rule-breaking lead detective on the case. But the standout is Supporting Actress winner Melissa Leo as the mother of a suspect who may or may not have been wrongly accused. (Sept. 20)
“Labor Day’’ — Jason Reitman’s small-scale gem is the Oscar sleeper in the field. This swooningly romantic thriller showcases Josh Brolin as an escaped murderer and Kate Winslet as an emotionally fragile single mother who falls in love with him. (Dec. 25)