Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

The past could offer window into Yankees’ offseason moves

This is a different offseason for the Yankees — and it is not.

They last finished a season with a sub-$189 million payroll in 2003. So they are aiming toward unfamiliar territory. Nevertheless, the Yankees have been prepping for this moment the past three years — by avoiding most contracts that would carry into 2014.

Still, the Yanks will have $60 million-ish (with Alex Rodriguez) and $90 million-ish (without him) to spend on free agents (including their own, such as Robinson Cano).

They are going to be active shoppers. But on what? The best source for determining that is, of all things, the Yankees.

Yes, they have abandoned familiar patterns on occasion to sign a Rafael Soriano or Ichiro Suzuki. In general, though, they have consistently prioritized two items — power rotation arms and lefty power bats. I would suspect that heads their shopping list again:

1. POWER PITCHING: The Yanks believe a strong rotation is a must to contend. Last offseason, for example, they used most of their budgeted dollars to quickly retain Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. The previous offseason, when they were ready to finally trade Jesus Montero, it was for Michael Pineda.

Following the playoff-less 2008 campaign, the two key items were CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett — Mark Teixeira was almost an afterthought, a signing general manager Brian Cashman essentially had to beg Hal Steinbrenner to consummate.

In the season prior to joining the Yanks, Sabathia, Burnett, Javier Vazquez and Pineda all averaged at least 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings and finished in the top seven in the majors in that category. The only significant starter added in recent years that did not fit this profile was Kuroda, who was a good, not great strikeout artist, but was valued for his repertoire and poise.

This is why the Yanks want Masahiro Tanaka, believing he has many of Kuroda’s assets. The Yanks would love to land Tanaka, re-sign Kuroda and team them with Sabathia and Ivan Nova, and have Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Brett Marshall and Vidal Nuno for depth.

However, Tanaka will have to be won through posting rules yet to be finalized and the Yanks think Kuroda is leaning toward returning to Japan. With or without that duo, the Yanks recently have shown solidifying the rotation is their top concern. Thus, I suspect they are adding two starters and will look to power arms if they cannot have Tanaka and/or Kuroda.

Burnett, a free agent, actually led NL qualifiers in strikeouts per nine innings (9.85). But the Yanks learned with Vazquez that a failure once in The Bronx is not worth revisiting.

The Yanks lack the prospect base to acquire potential trade pieces David Price and Max Scherzer, and probably not Jeff Samardzija either. Among free agents, Ubaldo Jimenez (9.56) has always intrigued the Yanks. But is he too Burnett-esque (great stuff, dubious command)?

As long as the medicals are fine — and those are big ifs — keep an eye on Josh Johnson (9.18) and Dan Haren (8.01), who continued to be able to miss bats even in down seasons and might be possible to lure on one-year, build-back-up-value contracts.

2. POWER BATS: From 2009-12 (coinciding with the opening of the new Stadium), Yankee lefty batters hit 164, 124, 135 and 154 homers — the most in the majors each season. They were 12th last year with 81, mainly because of extended injuries for Curtis Granderson and Teixeira, and the decision to replace Nick Swisher and Raul Ibanez with Suzuki and Travis Hafner.

Like with power pitching, the Yanks have emphasized this area. For example, they did decide to sign the switch-hitting Teixeira. They used Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to get Granderson. They identified lefty, flyball pull specialists such as Ibanez, Hafner and Eric Chavez. They do believe in being The Bronx Bombers.

If Granderson accepts the $14.1 million qualifying offer, Cano is re-signed and Teixeira is healthy, the Yanks will have mainly addressed this problem. If Granderson doesn’t return, then free-agent Carlos Beltran becomes a possibility. Shin-Soo Choo is attractive because he also adds on-base brilliance, but I don’t think the Yanks will go to the six-year length for him. If the Rockies ever make Carlos Gonzalez available, the Yanks would definitely be interested and on a lesser scale, the Cubs’ Nate Schierholtz and the A’s Seth Smith also could be intriguing in trades.

Brian McCann would bring 20-homer, lefty might to catching, but his price tag could climb toward $100 million. I suspect the Yanks also want a complementary third baseman with lefty power if A-Rod returns or not. Chavez, if he continues to play and is willing to return to New York, would be ideal. If Wilson Betemit is healthy, he also could be a possibility.

The Yanks have been mentioned with Jacoby Ellsbury. But, again, follow the history. He will cost $100 million-plus to sign and his lefty power has vanished the past two years. Brett Gardner will cost about $5 million in 2014, Cashman and Joe Girardi have done nothing to hide how much they like him, and — after the Suzuki fiasco — the Yanks will avoid limited lefty power in two outfield slots.

That is what history tells us anyway.