BOSTON — Jon Lester was 21 and about to join a Red Sox Double-A squad loaded with Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Moss and David Murphy.
Red Sox officials loved him, but felt to make his fastball-curve combo work best on the outside corner and away from righties, Lester needed to acquire a pitch that bore inside. They wanted him to develop a cutter and those Red Sox officials had someone they were quite familiar with in mind.
“The perfect illustration was Andy Pettitte,” said Padres general manager Josh Byrnes, at that time Boston’s assistant GM. “He was big. He was left-handed. We were like, ‘You can pitch like Andy Pettitte, you can drive the ball inside on righty hitters.’ ”
It worked. Lester, despite being young for the Eastern League, led it in strikeouts with 163 while going 11-6 with a 2.61 ERA and, as Byrnes recalled, a lot of folks in the organization started making the Pettitte comparison.
While watching Lester in Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday night, I wondered how the association had held up. When I read the numbers and details back to Byrnes on Thursday morning, his response was: “That is about as close as pitchers could be.”
OK, for the cynical and snarky, this is not about infamy — Pettitte’s admitted HGH use and Lester being accused of having a smudge in his glove in Game 1 and doctoring the ball. This is about data. Lester just completed his age-29 season. His closest comp at the same juncture, according to Baseball Reference, is Kevin Millwood. Pettitte is next.
Through his age-29 season in 2001, Pettitte had made 221 starts, and was 115-65 with a 3.99 ERA. His ERA-plus — which adjusts ERA to factor in ballparks and leagues — was 16 percent better than the league average in that time and he had a 1.398 WHIP.
Lester has 220 career starts and is 100-56 with a 3.76 ERA. His ERA-plus is 17 percent better than the league average in that time and he has a 1.304 WHIP.
Pettitte had a difficult 1999 season at age 27 when his ERA ballooned to 4.70 and he was nearly traded to the Phillies (for Adam Eaton, Reggie Taylor and Anthony Shumaker) or the Giants (for Shawn Estes) before Joe Torre and Mel Stottlemyre helped talk George Steinbrenner out of the idea. Lester’s troubling season came last year, his age-28 campaign, when his ERA climbed to 4.82. The Red Sox contemplated trading him at the July deadline and also the Royals made a play for him last offseason.
Lester has allowed no runs in each of his first two World Series starts, Pettitte just did it in his second start — his memorable 8¹/₃ shutout frames in Game 5 against John Smoltz in Atlanta in 1996. In fact, Lester actually has been far better through his first 10 postseason starts (5-4, 2.22 ERA) than Pettitte was through his (3-4, 5.63). It was immediately after that phase Pettitte became exceptional in the playoffs (16-7, 3.28 in his last 34 starts).
The Red Sox watched Pettitte’s brilliance grow and actually tried to bring him to Boston after the 2003 season, Lester’s second in the system. Boston had just lost the ALCS famously to the Yankees on Aaron Boone’s Game 7 homer and fired manager Grady Little. Pettitte was due to be a free agent after the World Series.
“We had so much admiration for Pettitte,” Byrnes remembered. “We were in Phoenix about to interview Joe Maddon for our managerial opening. The clock struck midnight when you could offer free agents. We never thought Pettitte would sign with us. But at 12:01 a.m., we wanted to show how much we valued him. We told him we could give him $52 million over four years. The Yanks had let him get out on the market and so we figured, why not? The idea was to either get him, which we knew was a long shot, or to muddy his waters with the Yankees. And I think it helped because he ended up signing with the Astros because maybe he thought the Yanks didn’t appreciate him enough.”
Instant replay can’t come soon enough
By coincidence, I was chatting with an MLB official as second base umpire Dana DeMuth blew a call in the first inning of Game 1. DeMuth ruled St. Louis shortstop Pete Kozma had lost a double-play pivot on the exchange from glove to hand. Had the call stood, Boston would have had first and third and two outs.
But after Red Sox manager John Farrell argued, the umps met and overturned a call no one could remember ever being overturned by umpire committee before. The reality is, though, the umps reversed to the proper call and Boston had bases loaded, one out and went on to score three runs and set the tone for an 8-1 rout.
As the play happened, I turned immediately to the MLB official and said the ump blew it; there was no way Kozma had the ball long enough. The official watched the replay and said, “Next year, we will get that right like that” and snapped his fingers. He meant next year there would be instant replay expansion that would cover this.
Part of the anti-instant replay crowd moans about pace of the game being impacted by adding replay. But without replay there was an argument by Farrell, an umpire meeting, a new decision and a longer argument from Cardinals manager Mike Matheny. In all, several minutes were wasted in a call that a replay monitor/umpire could have relayed to the earpiece of the crew chief in under 30 seconds.
Now, my suspicion is there will be a lot of kinks in the system in Year 1 and I can see managers such as Buck Showalter and Joe Girardi becoming masters of using delay tactics — having players re-tie cleats or catchers go talk to pitchers, etc. — to give extra time to have someone watch replays and inform the skipper whether or not to challenge. Still, that could be fixed. In general, put me down as someone who believes we will improve the pace of game in many instances, as long as part of the reform is that on-field arguments are now banned as part of the protocol. Once a replay is requested, no one should be allowed to leave the bench to argue the call any longer or face suspension if he does.
Nathan: Saves record isn’t untouchable
Mariano Rivera received the Commissioner’s Historic Achievement Award Thursday in honor of a career that ends with a record 652 saves. Just to give an idea how Secretariat at the Belmont that is as far as anyone catching him, consider the new active leaders (Nos. 1 and 2) in saves — Joe Nathan (341) and Francisco Rodriguez (304) — have fewer saves together (645) than Rivera by himself.
K-Rod, though just 31, is now a set-up man. Nathan, who turns 39 next month, said he would have to pitch until his 60s to catch Rivera. Yet, when I spoke to Nathan by phone, he believed someone would ultimately catch Mo.
“It is definitely possible,” Nathan said. “But it definitely will not be easy. You are talking having very good years for 18 years. I didn’t even start as a closer until I was close to 30, so for me the number is not realistic. But guys who start young like [Atlanta’s Craig] Kimbrel will have some shot. The whole key is can you stay healthy because what history has shown us is there is not a lot of longevity at this position.”