TAMPA — Spring training is about people, not results. The results, after all, are hostage to how exhibitions are played.
Starters play pieces of games at a pace that honors the coming 162-game schedule and not that day’s scoreboard. Quadruple-A players litter the field late in games, the stands are often sparsely filled, and the sun and wind conditions can be particularly fickle.
So concentrate on the people. Who is in shape? Who has added a new pitch? Who has or has not put an injury in the rearview mirror? With that in mind here are the 10 people Hardball is most curious about as spring training opens:
1. JOSE REYES, METS
Not long ago, Reyes was actually an iron man. He played the fourth-most games from 2005-08, a four-year period in which he had 39 more steals and 15 more triples than anyone; and scored more runs than Derek Jeter or Ichiro Suzuki. When he is healthy, happy and dynamic, the Mets are usually pretty good.
2. BRANDON WEBB, DIAMONDBACKS
The pitching version of Reyes: a 2005-08 iron man who led the majors in innings and wins before breaking down last year. So far, so good on his shoulder. If Webb is 2006 Cy Young healthy in tandem with ace Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson, Arizona will have a rotation front three among the NL’s best.
3. FRANCISCO LIRIANO, TWINS
In 2006, he appeared the heir to Johan Santana. But since needing Tommy John surgery and missing the 2007 season, he has not been the same. Until — maybe — now. Reports out of the Dominican winter league were sterling. One personnel man’s take: “His fastball was 91-95 [mph]. The slider looked good and he was able to bury it inside to righty hitters. His changeup was a strong pitch with deception and he had the ability to use it in any count. He looked like a middle-to-upper-rotation type.”
So, yes, signing Joe Mauer long-term is vital for the organ-ization’s future. But nothing in 2010 is more vital for the Twins to climb from AL Central favorites to something greater
than if Liriano finally can take the baton from Santana.
4. ZACK GREINKE, ROYALS
The past two AL Cy Young winners (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee) were traded during the past two seasons by an underachieving AL Central team (Cleveland). Can Greinke be next? Probably not, but he likely is moving toward the launching pad. His contract expires after the 2012 season. Is there any reason to believe KC will be even a viable playoff contender before then? If not, isn’t it in the organ-ization’s best interest to maximize his value for a boatload of elite prospects?
Greinke’s path actually miht follow the AL Cy winner prior to Sabathia and Lee. That would be Santana, who won his Cy in 2006, pitched the entire 2007 season in the AL Central for the Twins and then was traded after that year. Santana was entering his walk year; Greinke will be two years away, enhancing his value.
5. ADRIAN GONZALEZ, PADRES
So if Greinke does not get traded in season, Gonzalez becomes the most attractive commodity. San Diego can’t afford a Mark Teixeira-ish contract. New GM Jed Hoyer was the assistant GM in Boston, so he knows that system and a marriage feels inevitable — especially since the Red Sox want him so badly.
Who else is already on the clock for July in February? Gonzalez’s teammate Heath Bell, for sure. The A’s signed Ben Sheets to a bloated $10 million deal with the expectation that if they are not in contention he will be traded in July.
The Indians again will be a clearinghouse with Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Kerry Wood, Jhonny Peralta and Travis Hafner available. While the Royals protect Greinke, they probably should move Gil Meche. Will Houston ever concede that its best long-term strategy involves moving Roy Oswalt and/or Lance Berkman?
6. AROLDIS CHAPMAN, REDS
For a $25 million investment, the Reds got a talented mystery. There are questions about his timetable to the majors, whether he is a starter or reliever, and if money will impact his seriousness and conditioning. But the idea — too often forgotten — is to win a championship and smaller-market teams need some gambles. At least the Reds, who do have young talent emerging, can dream now about having a power rotation in two years of Chapman, Mike Leake, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey that could carry them to October.
7. STEPHEN STRASBURG, NATIONALS
Does any player more impact his organization’s future? Will any pitcher’s starts be more scrutinized this spring? He was touted as the best pitcher ever in the draft and was given a draft record $15.1 million deal. If he becomes an ace (and quickly), the Nationals’ future brightens.
8. B.J. UPTON, RAYS
Anyone who watched the 2008 playoffs thought we were watching the birth of a superstar as Upton powered Tampa to the World Series. But last year, his game shriveled and — at times — he looked not only ineffective, but disint-erested. Are his shoulders healthy and is his head in the right place? The Rays are very good, and a fully engaged, pro-ductive Upton could catapult them into the Yankees/Red Sox stratosphere.
9. MATT WIETERS, ORIOLES
OK, the Orioles cannot catapult into the Yankees/Red Sox stratosphere even if Wieters wins the Triple Crown. But Baltimore has put the young pieces of a contender into place, and having Wieters honor Mauer-esque comparisons would speed up the process. He had troubles last year as a rookie, but his best month was September. Was that a coming attraction?
10. BRANDON WOOD, ANGELS
The burden falls on Wood and Jered Weaver to replace Chone Figgins and John Lackey. But even if Weaver does not graduate to being an ace, he already is proven as a strong major league pitcher within a veteran rotation (Joe Saunders, Joel Pineiro, Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir). There is less safety net at third base with Wood, and the Angels always have seemed hesitant to fully commit to his powerful, but strikeout-laced game. Now they really have to try to stick with him and he must prosper or else the footsteps of the Rangers, Mariners and A’s will grow louder.