Violence in Allah’s name in northern Africa won’t end in my lifetime — and probably not in yours. The core question is: To what extent can the savagery be contained?
From the Atlantic coastline to the Suez Canal, struggling governments, impoverished populations and frankly backward societies struggle to find paths to modernization and to compete in a ruthless global economy. Religious fanatics for whom progress is a betrayal of faith hope to block development.
Still, if the only conflict was between Islamist terrorists and those who want civilized lives, the situation could be managed over time. But that struggle forms only one level in a layer cake of clashing visions and outright civil wars bedeviling a vast region. Much larger than Europe, the zone of contention encompasses the Maghreb, the countries touching the Mediterranean, and the Sahel, the bitterly poor states stretching down across desert wastes to the African savannah.
The Sahel is the front line not only between the world of Islam and Christian-animist cultures in Africa’s heart, but between Arabs and light-skinned tribes in the north, and blacks to the south. No area in the world so explicitly illustrates the late, great Samuel Huntington’s concept of “the clash of civilizations.”
If racial and religious differences were not challenge enough, in the Maghreb the factions and interest groups are still more complicated. We view Egypt as locked in a contest between Islamists and “our guys,” Egyptians seeking new freedoms. But Egypt’s identity struggle is far more complex, involving social liberals, moderate Muslims, stern conservative Muslims (such as the Muslim Brotherhood) and outright fanatics. The military forms another constituency, while the business community defends its selfish interests. Then there are the supporters of the old Mubarak regime, the masses of educated-but-unemployed youth and the bitterly poor peasants.
Atop all that there’s the question of whether the values cherished by Arab societies can adapt to a globalized world.
The path to Egypt’s future will not be smooth — yet Egypt’s chances are better than those of many of its neighbors. Consider a few key countries in the region:
Mali
Viva la France! (Never thought I’d write that in The Post.) Contrary to a lot of media nonsense, the effective French intervention in Mali demonstrates that not every military response to Islamist terror has to become another Afghanistan: The French are welcome.
As extremists invariably do, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its allies rapidly alienated their fellow Muslims — after hijacking a local uprising. The local version of Islam is far more humane and tolerant than the Wahhabi cult imposed by Islamist fanatics. To the foreign extremists, the Malian love of Sufi mysticism, ancient shrines and their own centuries of religious scholarship are all hateful — as is the Malian genius for music that’s pleased listeners around the world.
The terrorists banned music, imposed savage Sharia law, destroyed centuries-old shrines and, before fleeing the French advance, set fire to the treasure house of ancient Islamic manuscripts in Timbuktu (many were thankfully saved). The latter was a crime against all humanity, but the fanatics had their reasons: Barely two centuries old, the primitive Wahhabi cult won’t tolerate competing views of Islamic practice.
The French hope to hand over extended military operations in Mali to African troops. We’ll see how that goes, but the key here is intelligence surveillance. Hiding in desert wastes is a lot harder than going to ground in the Afghan mountains or the cities of Iraq. Thus far, the US has been providing highly effective targeting information. That’s a commitment we need to maintain.
Algeria
This major oil-and-gas producer and “authoritarian democracy” had been out of the headlines until last month when a gang of terrorists struck the In Amenas natural-gas facility. The Algerian military response was prompt, brutal and effective, denying the terrorists extended media attention and an aura of victory. Western commentators deplored the loss of life but were silent back in the 1990s, when Algeria spent a decade battling an Islamist insurgency at the cost of 200,000 lives. The Algerian government intends to keep firm control.
Nigeria
Africa’s most populous country and one of the world’s top oil producers, Nigeria is divided almost evenly between a desolate Muslim north, where fanatics lurk, and a Christian-animist south, where the oil’s located. In recent years, an Islamist murder-cult, Boko Haram, has terrorized the north, massacring Christians, burning churches and attacking schools (the name “Boko Haram” means “Western learning is forbidden”). And for all its might on paper, the Nigerian government has been unable to subdue the fanatics.
Libya
The new Libyan government gets points for struggling to organize the country, but success has been limited, to put it gently. Arms from Khadafy’s caches have flooded the region, militias rule cities and towns and Islamists piggybacked on the revolution (just as they did in Syria, Mali and elsewhere). Nonetheless, the Tripoli government merits our support. The country wants to get better but needs help. Within reason, we should provide it.
The Benghazi attack was meant to drive us out. Instead, it should keep us in.
Libya’s challenges are aggravated by a situation affecting virtually every state in the region: faulty borders. The frontiers have little or nothing to do with local allegiances, ethnic integrity or even a common religion — they were drawn by European colonizers for their own convenience. As a result, those borders either shove people together who hate each other, or divide people who share an identity. In Mali, for example, light-skinned tribes populate the north, while blacks dominate the south and the government. And the blacks in the south have not forgotten that the northerners supported the slave trade for centuries, while many northerners still regard blacks as inferior.
In Libya, the divide between east and west is critical.
Niger
Next door to Mali, this poverty-stricken, training-wheels democracy has long had a French military presence — not least because Niger’s vital uranium mines are effectively owned by a French atomic-power company. Although various terrorist groups have gnawed at security, Niger may escape the worst of the terrorist threat, due to active French engagement. This week’s agreement to base US surveillance drones in the country gives us a stake and a presence in mid-Africa.
Our support for the French intervention got it right: Given that France maintains extensive interests throughout its former colonies in the region, it’s the French turn to fight. But they need intelligence and logistical support, which we can provide. And, thank God, the French don’t worry about the “human rights” of terrorists. When Paris has a dog in the fight, it bites.
Egypt
Two years after the revolution, angry masses crowd the streets again, this time to protest against the latest man-who-would-be-pharaoh, democratically elected President Mohammed Morsi. Morsi rushed to pack as many senior government positions as possible with fellow members of the Muslim Brotherhood without worrying about competence. Now he heads an inept government and resorts to heavy-handed means to quell unrest.
The Muslim Brotherhood made a strategic error in grasping power too quickly, instead of aping the creeping Islamization underway in Turkey. While the Brotherhood had the Chicago-style organization to turn out the illiterate masses, it utterly lacked the wherewithal to halt the economy’s downward spiral. And, in the end, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Even fundamentalists have to eat.
By overplaying their hand so eagerly, the Muslim Brothers have lost credibility. Will they be able to hang onto the power they’ve sought for almost a century? They won’t give it up easily, but Morsi has gone from confidence to fear in record time. The action (or inaction) of the military may be the crucial factor in determining Egypt’s future — which remains very much in question.
What’s ahead
In other states across the region, trouble sputters on. Sudan continues its oppression of Darfur Province, and the country’s oil-rich south split off to become the world’s newest state, South Sudan. Rump Sudan is conservatively Muslim and views itself as part of the Arab world, South Sudan is Christian, animist and black. The countries have been fighting since they separated.
Mauritania’s soft on the Islamists. Tunisia’s moving haltingly toward a rule-of-law, democratic society. Chad has been plagued by guerillas in the past. Only Morocco has maintained relative internal peace (despite some terror attacks), with its king gingerly implementing reforms.
And we haven’t even gotten to a dozen other countries wracked with problems.
The bottom line? Unified international action, as in Mali (or Somalia), can push back Islamist terrorists. But the fractured nature of local societies, low levels of development, corruption and, not least, traditional hatreds guarantee unrest for decades to come. We’ll be engaged, whether we like it or not. Instead of defaulting to idiotic slogans like “Lead from behind!” we need to think ahead.
Ralph Peters is a retired Army officer. He has done several research projects in Africa.