BOSTON — The Red Sox’s free-agent list provides a kind of one-stop shopping for many teams in the majors, including the two in New York.
You could imagine, for example, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Joel Hanrahan interesting the Mets. And Napoli, Drew, Hanrahan and Jarrod Saltalamacchia enticing the Yankees.
But one key issue is which of these players will receive the tender, which I reported Friday, is going to be $14.1 million. Boston certainly will tender Ellsbury, who could be looking at the second-largest deal in the upcoming market behind Robinson Cano, and not Hanrahan, who appeared in just nine games before needing Tommy John surgery and might not be ready to begin next year on time.
Four top executives — two from the NL and two from the AL — all agreed Ellsbury would be tendered. The two AL officials also anticipate Napoli being tendered, but cautioned a chronic hip condition (which led to Boston lowering its initial deal to him last offseason from three years at $39 million to an incentive-heavy, one-year $5 million pact) could impact the decision. One of the NL executives forecasted Boston giving Saltalamacchia the tender because catching is in such short supply. The other NL executive predicted the Red Sox would tender all four of their top free agents — which I anticipate, as well.
“It is a huge big-market advantage,” the executive said. “It is why the New York Yankees will offer Granderson [the tender]. Even if you think a guy will be worth $9 million-10 million, you get a one-year deal or a pick.”
Ellsbury will reject the tender because he surely will be offered more than $14.1 million annually on a multi-year deal, and he is a good enough player that a team will not fret much about losing a draft pick.
Drew, Napoli and Saltalamacchia almost certainly would be offered less than $14.1 million annually on multi-year deals. Many teams will be disinclined to give players of their good, but not elite skill level a multi-year deal and lose a draft pick. Thus, by simply offering the tender (which has to come within five days after the World Series), Boston could chill the markets for each and potentially force each to strongly consider taking the tender (players have a week to decide whether to take or reject).
The Red Sox wouldn’t mind if that trio accepted. Yes, they would be overpaying for one year by a few million dollars for each, but they would be avoiding long-term risk. Plus, tendered players are without no-trade rights, so all can also be dealt. Let’s look at each player to illustrate the subject:
ELLSBURY — Boston would love to keep its leadoff-hitting center fielder. But the Red Sox seem more committed to not doing the super long-term deals like they had with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. You could imagine agent Scott Boras will be targeting Crawford’s seven-year, $142 million payday as a baseline for negotiations. Boston has Jackie Bradley Jr. as an inexpensive option to step in.
DREW — Because he also is a Boras client a sentiment exists that he would reject the tender, as well. Shortstop is another are without much above-average inventory, so Drew could be looking at a three-year deal in the $33 million-to-$36 million range.
The Mets could use his lefty power at shortstop. The Yankees need Derek Jeter/Alex Rodriguez left-side-of-the-infield insurance. But if Drew were tendered would the Mets be willing to lose their second-round pick next June for him and the Yankees a first rounder? Teams that finish with among the 10 worst records lose their second-round pick if they sign a tendered player (like the Mets) and teams with a top-20 record lose a first-round pick (like the Yankees).
NAPOLI — He has hit in big games as a Ranger and a Red Sox, and in Boston proved a quality first baseman. The Mets could jettison all Ike Davis/Lucas Duda/Daniel Murphy options and sign him, and the Yankees could use him as a first base/DH combo — though they may be more inclined to pursue Brian McCann as a catcher/first baseman/DH. Though Napoli played 139 games, fear will persist about his body aging poorly (he turns 32 on Halloween). Can he get that three-year, $39 million pact?
SALTALAMACCHIA — He has his flaws defensively and batting from the right side. But the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia beats up right-handed pitching. You can envision him doing damage with the short right field porch — though, again, McCann appears more of a Yankee priority.
A three- or four-year deal in the $10 million-to-$12 million range is possible, but teams will be more reticent if he is offered the tender.