The Giants have won three in a row but have yet to play a game that left anyone saying, “Wow, they’re back” or even “Hey, they’re pretty good.”
Now, at 3-6, the Giants are favored by 5 points against the 5-4 Packers. That certainly wouldn’t have been the case if Aaron Rodgers were playing, but his absence seems pretty fairly factored into the line.
So what we’re left with is streaking-yet-hardly-surging Giants against a third-string quarterback named Scott Tolzien.
Tolzien, who played at Wisconsin, threw a red-zone interception early last Sunday against the Eagles in relief of Seneca Wallace, before settling in and throwing for 280 yards and a touchdown. He looked pretty comfortable throwing to his scout-team-level receivers Jarrett Boykin and Brandon Bostick. This week, he will get acquainted with Jordy Nelson and James Jones, and get Eddie Lacy more involved.
And though they have a better record than the Giants, the Packers may actually be the more desperate team here, off two losses and now out of playoff position.
That’s not to say the Giants won’t pull out another close one, but the pick is … Packers +5.
Jets (+1) over BILLS: Marty Mornhinweg has had two weeks to prepare for a Bills defense the Jets strafed for 513 yards in a 27-20 win in Week 3 at the Meadowlands. (The only reason the score was that close was the Jets’ 20 penalties). After doing more with less the last month, Martyball gets Santonio Holmes and Kellen Winslow back in the mix. Bills also are playing an 11th consecutive week, and, pretty much out of it at 3-7, could be looking forward to their bye week.
BUCCANEERS (+1) over Falcons: Short week off a Monday night win for the Buccaneers, but find it hard to believe a 1-8 team would have a letdown. They looked as if they were still into playing this season in a physical game with the Dolphins, while the Falcons appear to have checked out at 2-7, losing three in a row by 14, 24 and 23 points.
Lions (-2) over STEELERS: This pick will be your vote whether you think the Lions are for real or the same imposters they’ve been for decades. The 3-6 Steelers will be tough to beat at home when a loss certainly means Curtains. But you have to like the trio of Matt Stafford-Reggie Bush-Calvin Johnson on what will be an unseasonably warm if a little bit wet day.
Redskins (+3¹/₂) over EAGLES: Hard to go against a quarterback with 16 touchdowns and no interceptions (Nick Foles), but the Eagles still have that massive 10-game home losing streak, and you get more than a field goal in case they do break it. Going with Redskins with our Thursday-night trend (those teams are 10-6 against the spread the next week, though 0-2 last week).
Chargers (-1) over DOLPHINS: Philip Rivers is averaging 328 yards passing on the road, and the Dolphins are just a toxic team right now.
BEARS (-3) over Ravens: No hesitation going with Josh McCown, who’s back in for the re-injured Jay Cutler. With Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry, Ravens will be susceptible to third-down turnovers against ballhawking Bears defense.
Browns (+5 ¹/₂) over BENGALS: Six of the Bengals’ 10 games have been decided by four points or fewer. Browns beat them 17-6 in Cleveland, and that’s when Cincinnati still had Geno Adkins and Rey Maualuga.
TEXANS (-7) over Raiders: Terrelle Pryor (knee) can’t run and Darren McFadden (hamstring) may be of little to no use again. So the Raiders will have to rely on the pass against the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense. Case Keenum and Texans are ready for a double-digit win.
JAGUARS (+7) over Cardinals: Arizona is 1-3 on the road with the lone win by three at Tampa Bay. Not a great résumé for a touchdown road favorite.
Vikings (+12) over SEAHAWKS: Seattle’s home dominance fading a bit (won by seven over Titans and three over Buccaneers in last two). Love getting double digits with a top runner like Adrian Peterson. Vikings also a Thursday-night trend team.
SAINTS (-3) over 49ers: Can’t expect the 49ers, who have recently lost at home to the Colts and Panthers, to go into the Superdome and hang this close with the Saints.
BRONCOS (-8¹/₂) over Chiefs: Denver is 5-0 at home, winning all by 16 points or more. Peyton Manning is gimpy but practiced on Thursday, Andy Reid is 13-1 in his career after a bye, but the Chiefs are a 9-0 team that somehow has given up more yards than it has gained. When they finally crash, it’s going to be ugly.
MONDAY NIGHT
Patriots (+2 ¹/₂) over PANTHERS: Off a bye, Tom Brady and the Patriots have had ample time to figure out how to attack the Panthers’ NFC-best defense. Love getting points with the Pats in prime time.
LAST WEEK: 5-9 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
BEST BETS: Saints, Jets, Chargers
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Saints (Locks 3-7)
THURSDAY NIGHT: Colts