If Catholics who’ve left the church formed a religious denomination, it would be the second-largest in the country: More than one in 10 Americans is a former member of the Catholic Church. So you can see why Catholic leaders and laypeople hoped that a new pope would bring new life to American Catholicism. But last week those hopes were dashed (at least for now) when the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life reported that there has been no Pope Francis effect.
“Between Francis’ election in March and the end of October this year . . . the percentage of Americans who identify as Catholics has remained the same — 22 percent — as it was during the corresponding seven-month period in 2012. In fact, our polls going back to 2007 show Catholic identification in the US has held stable, fluctuating only between 22 percent and 23 percent.”
In terms of church attendance, the picture is much the same. According to Pew, “self-reported levels of Mass attendance have remained virtually unchanged since the new pope was elected. Since April of this year, 39 percent of US Catholics report attending Mass at least weekly, similar to the 40 percent attendance figure last year.”
There is no doubt that the pope has become quite popular in certain circles. His statement that the church has become “obsessed” with abortion, gay marriage and contraception has been thoroughly embraced by liberals in the media, the academy and even Washington, who have been espousing similar sentiments for the past few decades.
Even aside from these hot-button issues, though, the pope’s public appearances and pronouncements have clearly aimed to change the public’s perception of Catholicism.
But gaining the admiration of non-Catholics or even disaffected Catholics is a long way from actually getting people to show up to Sunday Mass, let alone make them more likely to claim a Catholic affiliation when pollsters call.
There are two reasons that people go to religious services — because God wants them there or because other people do. Catholics believe there is a miracle every week in the Eucharist, which transforms bread and wine into the body and blood of Christ. For those who believe, weekly attendance at church is far from optional.
Yet the pressure from above has been somewhat lessened lately. “Especially in the wake of Vatican II, the stigma of not attending Mass was lightened, if not eliminated,” notes David Campbell, a Notre Dame political-science professor and co-author with Robert Putnam of “American Grace.”
Many Catholics show up every week because of the community they are a part of. “Everyone knows the saying that all politics is local. One could say the same thing about churches,” says Campbell. “That’s what keeps people coming. They have a social network — a literal face-to-face one.”
Feeling like other people are depending on you week in and week out to not only come to Mass, but to participate in various church ministries, teach Sunday school, staff the soup kitchen — those are not the kind of responsibilities or social ties that form over the course of six months just because a new pope has been installed.
In 2008, the Pew Forum asked ex-Catholics why they left the church. Some expressed disagreement with the church on social issues; others said they simply found a faith they liked more. But the most common reason offered for leaving the church is that they simply “drifted away.”
Greg Smith, the director of US Religion Surveys at Pew’s Religion & Public Life Project, says that this is a key fact: “There is not always a precipitating event, there is not always a single cause.” (For example, the sex-abuse scandals were among the least cited reasons for leaving).
Just as leaving is a gradual process for most Catholics, coming back may take a while, too. Indeed, Campbell says that he wouldn’t discount the possibility of a “long-term Pope Francis effect” if the pontiff affects changes on the ground.
In the meantime, though, many of the fallen away will simply be content with admiring the pope — from afar.