POINT GUARD
UNC’s Raymond Felton vs. MSU’s Drew Neitzel
There is no team more dependent on one player in the Final Four than Carolina is on Felton. Without him they are talent run amok. Neitzel is the most heralded Spartan freshman since Magic and he’ll be a great one in time. For now he’s no match for Felton.
Edge: North Carolina
SHOOTING GUARD
UNC’s Rashad McCants vs. MSU’s Shannon Brown
McCants is a mercurial talent, capable of taking over a game or letting his emotions take him over. Brown was great against Kentucky (8-of-10) and is a better pure shooter than McCants, but McCants can post up and get to the basket.
Edge: North Carolina
SMALL FORWARD
UNC’s Jackie Manuel vs. MSU’s Maurice Ager
Manuel is not much of a scoring threat but he’s a terrific defender, with five steals and two blocked shots in four tourney games. Ager averaged 16.8 points on 46.9 shooting. This could be the pivotal matchup.
Edge: Even
POWER FORWARD
UNC’s Jawad Williams vs. MSU’s Alan Anderson
The 6-9 Williams does a little of everything, but not in this tournament. He’s 1-for-8 on 3s and has trouble guarding smaller players, such as the 6-6 Anderson, who’s as good a pure shooter as there is. He’s 5-of-8 on 3s and 21-of-22 from the line.
Edge: Michigan State
CENTER
UNC’s Sean May vs. MSU’s Paul Davis
May has emerged as the most dominant player in the tourney, averaging 23 points and 11 rebounds. Six assists means you can’t double the 6-9, 260-pounder. Davis is playing the best of his career (15 points, 10.7 boards) but he can’t handle May alone.
Edge: North Carolina.
BENCH/INTANGIBLES
North Carolina has the best sixth man in America in freshman Marvin Williams, who could be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. But Melvin Scott, a converted shooting guard, is not the answer as Felton’s backup. The Spartans are the deepest team left. Kelvin Torbert and Chris Hill are a versatile duo. Many thought Carolina was the team to beat in the preseason. The Spartans, five-point underdogs, have less pressure and they’re the best foul shooting team in the Final Four.
Edge: Michigan State
COACHING
UNC’s Roy Williams vs MSU’s Tom Izzo
Williams is making his fifth Final Four appearance and has transformed a group of players that won eight games in ’01-02 into a team that won 31. Izzo’s .793 postseason winning percentage (23-6) is the highest among active coaches. He led the Spartans to the 2000 title and has gotten seniors Torbert and Hill to accept roles off the bench.
Edge: Michigan State
UNC MSU
31-4 Record 26-6
88.4 Avg. Points 78.7
70.3 Opp. Avg. Points 64.8
18.2 Margin 14.0
.499 FG Pct. .494
.404 Opp. FG Pct. .426
.402 3-pt. FG Pct. .358
.344 Opp. 3-pt. FG Pct. .357
7.5 3-pt. FG/game 6.6
7.6 Opp. 3-pt FG/game 6.3
.729 FT Pct. .777
7.8 Rebound Margin 7.3
1.9 Turnover Differential 1.7
10.1 Avg. Steals 7.8
3.8 Avg. Blocks 2.6
PREDICTION
NORTH CAROLINA 86
MICHIGAN STATE 83