The Mets need Johan Santana. Desperately. But the Mets are not the only entity with something to lose if contract negotiations fail. So does Santana.
And because of that, most people in baseball expect the sides to finalize a deal – probably in the seven-year, $140 million range – before the 72-hour window to conclude negotiations ends tomorrow at 5 p.m.
Neither Met officials nor Santana’s agent, Peter Greenberg, returned calls yesterday, a day after the Mets and Twins finalized a trade that would send the two-time Cy Young winner from the Twins to the Mets.
If the deal is completed, Minnesota will receive Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
To complete the deal, the sides must agree to an extension. The Mets have insisted they do not want to go beyond five years on an extension. Santana, who is due $13 million this year, has indicated he wants as many as seven years or else he could return to the Twins and be a free agent after the season. So there might be common ground on a six-year extension.
One veteran agent believed the deal would come down to the deadline’s final few hours but believed, since a Santana-Mets union would benefit Both, that it would get done.
“This is a good situation for both sides,” the agent said. “It transforms the Mets’ offseason and sets them up going forward, too. And it is a team Santana wants. A year from now he will be back with the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox if he doesn’t do this now. So I think, if both sides are reasonable, you get a deal. And I think both sides will be reasonable.
“I am sure Santana has a number and this negotiation is how close do the Mets come to that number, and is the difference is worth it for Santana to risk pitching another whole season back in Minnesota with a team that is unlikely to win and with him then having the perception of a mercenary going for the last nickel?”
Indeed, the agent even wondered if a difference of, say, $25 million in the overall package – a $125 million Mets offer versus a $150 million Santana demand – would be worth it for Santana to reject considering both the possible injury risk and potential damage to his reputation.
There was a feeling in baseball that the deal would look something like this: The Mets would add about $7 million in a signing bonus or assignment bonus to complete the trade to the $13 million Santana is due in 2008. They then would give him a six-year, $120 million extension. That would make the total package seven years at $140 million.
A pact such as that would top two pitching contract records – Barry Zito’s total package ($126 million) and Carlos Zambrano’s average annual value of $18.3 million.
“I keep hearing what a great relationship [Santana’s agent] Peter Greenberg has with the Mets,” an AL executive said. “Forget that. This is his signature player. He will negotiate hard for a great contract.”
Added one agent who declined to make a prediction, “I would play such hardball with [Met GM] Omar [Minaya] right now it’s scary. What choice does he have?”
Other forecasts? One AL team official guessed a six-year extension at between $132 million and $144 million. A third agent suggested six years for a total of between $138 million and $150 million, while a fourth came up with at least six years and $144 million, an average value of $24 million.
That agent, however, believed the negotiations should begin at $28 million annually for between five and seven years, using the Roger Clemens 2007 template.
The agent rationalized that Clemens – like Santana – also was a starter pitching in New York, saying, “That’s what Omar and I would be talking about, is Roger Clemens. And if he wants to talk me off of there in terms of dollars per year, we can listen.”
The agent also used Alex Rodriguez – who has a 10-year deal for $275 million – as an example, saying, “Is [Santana] as important to the Mets as A-Rod is to the Yankees? The answer’s yes.”