ST. LOUIS — The Red Sox finished at the bottom of the AL East a season ago, so their World Series appearance is another reminder how difficult it is to forecast what might happen a year from now.
And the history of baseball has warned us over and over that “there is no such thing as too much pitching.”
Yet, I feel as comfortable as I probably ever will be in saying this: The Cardinals are going to be very good again next year, largely because they have too much pitching.
Yes, there is nothing as fragile in the game — maybe in all sports — than pitchers, and perhaps few items less predictable than young pitchers with little to no track record. Still, I have as much trust in the Cardinals in this area as anyone because they dealt with the fragility in 2013 and actually came out on the other side in better shape.
Consider that Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook were supposed to comprise three-fifths of the Cardinals rotation and instead totaled 28 starts, opening slots for Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha. Consider Jason Motte, who closed out the World Series in 2011 and tied for the NL saves lead (42) in 2012, missed all of the 2013 season and needed Tommy John surgery. Yet, Trevor Rosenthal has finished the season as the most overpowering closer this side of Craig Kimbrel.
Rosenthal and his two main set-up men, Carlos Martinez and lefty Kevin Siegrist, all have starting pedigree and St. Louis has a history of breaking in starters in the pen. Mets fans might remember Adam Wainwright was the closer in the 2006 postseason. Lance Lynn was a main set-up man on the 2011 champions and has 33 wins as a starter the past two years. Miller was in the Cardinals postseason bullpen last year and won 15 games as a rookie this season. Kelly has moved between the two roles the past two seasons.
Garcia, who had shoulder surgery, and Motte are expected to return next season. That means the Cardinals have high-quality depth throughout their staff. But it goes further than that: They have high-quality, mainly low-cost pitching depth, which is the best asset in the game. It sets them up as a force this offseason, especially as they look to fix their two most glaring needs at shortstop and center field.
They have three potential paths:
1. Be bold in free agency. For example, the Cardinals could aggressively pursue Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew — Red Sox players they are viewing close-up now — and not blow out their budget because they have so much inexpensive talent. Plus, losing draft picks for signing qualified free agents — which Ellsbury and Drew most likely will be — is not as painful when you have the young talent. And with the potential the Carlos Beltran will leave (possibly to the Yankees), St. Louis could add a draft pick between the first and second round for June 2014.
This strategy enables St. Louis to keep its pitching stockpile. Plus, players such as Garcia, Motte and Matt Holliday will come off the payroll in the next few years, coinciding with Wacha and Miller, etc., getting more expensive.
2. Trade boldly. With such a reservoir of talent — not just the arms, but outfielder Oscar Tavares, too — St. Louis would be viable for any big name that came on the market. For example, to move shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado probably would want a high-end starter and power-hitting first baseman as key elements. You wonder if St. Louis would have to give up much more than Miller and Matt Adams (who might be blocked at first by Allen Craig) to get it done.
3. Be less bold. If the Cardinals did nothing, they still would be good next year. But they could, for example, move second baseman Matt Carpenter to third, insert Kolten Wong at second and use third baseman David Freese, center fielder Jon Jay and arms such as Lynn or Kelly as trade bait.
For example, does Lynn for Rangers emerging center fielder Leonys Martin make sense? Or Lynn and Freese for Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy (Baltimore could move third baseman Manny Machado, assuming his knee is healthy next year, to short) work?
The larger point here is that by amassing such tremendous talent, particularly young pitching, the Cardinals already are big factors for this offseason and championship factors for years to come.