This postseason is being defined by power arms in their early 20s (think Michael Wacha, and Gerrit Cole) and power bats in their late 30s (think Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz).
But the most meaningful remnant of these playoffs could be — and perhaps should be — this: Stop giving first basemen mega-contracts.
Let’s revisit the 2011-12 offseason. Albert Pujols spurned a Cardinals offer of more than $200 million to stay in St. Louis — which now appears the most fortunate rejection in major league history. With the money saved, St. Louis went long term with cornerstones Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Pujols’ replacement, Allen Craig, and is returning to the World Series.
In that same offseason, Victor Martinez tore a knee ligament and the Tigers acted (over-reacted?) by signing Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract — the second-largest total deal for a first baseman after the 10-year, $240 million monstrosity the Angels gave to Pujols.
Fielder’s OPS has declined in both seasons with the Tigers, down to .819 this year, and he entered Saturday’s ALCS Game 6 as — to date — Detroit’s playoff albatross. He had no homers or RBIs in 11 postseason games this year and his last 20 postseason games with Detroit. But the real worry is this — he has seven years at $168 million remaining, and his alarming girth remains.
In general, super-long-term deals have a small success rate, and those for first basemen seem worst of all.
“I think it’s crazy,” one general manager told me. “The mega-contract for that position does not make sense to me.”
Here are the six players who have received multi-year deals at the position for at least $22 million annually: Fielder, Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez.
You might tell me Votto’s deal is not a disaster. And I will say this: His 10-year, $225 million pact does not even begin until next season and does not end until 2023 when he will be 40. And he already is a polarizing figure — if you love him, Votto is a patient, on-base genius. If you don’t, he does not do enough to drive in runs. Either way, his power took a worrisome, steep decline in 2013.
Maybe disaster also is too strong a description for Gonzalez’s seven-year, $154 million accord. But it already has been traded once. Now, Gonzalez was the player the Dodgers wanted most when they made the uber-deal with Boston for Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto, too. But an executive for a team Gonzalez played for said, “There is a reason he is a one-one who has been with five organizations.”
A one-one means first pick in the first round, which Gonzalez was by the Marlins in 2000. He has since moved on to the Rangers, Padres, Red Sox and now Dodgers. Let’s just say Gonzalez is not universally loved — and this was before the Mickey Mouse ears. Plus, his OPS from 2009-11 was .940, sixth in the majors (minimum 1,500 plate appearances), but in the past two seasons, Gonzalez has dropped to an .805 OPS, 42nd in the majors (minimum 1,000 plate appearances). He is 31, his power has diminished and — after this year — he still is owed five years at $106 million through 2018. You wonder if he will be playing for a sixth organization — or seventh — before his contract is done.
And, remember, of this lot, Votto and Gonzalez have the most upbeat situations. I believe if given the opportunity to amnesty Fielder, Pujols, Teixeira and Howard for nothing in return, each of their current teams would do that just to lose the remainder of the contracts.
Pujols has eight years at $212 million, which would be the sixth-largest deal ever. He now appears a shell of the player who not long ago commanded the largest contract ever for someone not named Alex Rodriguez. Yet, he has some A-Rod issues: declining performance and — at the least — loose ties to steroids.
His OPS has fallen each year with the Angels, down to .767 this season (Brett Gardner was .759). He was hobbled all season with a foot injury and finally shut it down in August. He turns 34 in January and is making news this offseason by suing Jack Clark for defamation after the former Cardinal accused Pujols of having used illegal performance-enhancers.
The Yankees might not have won the 2009 title without Teixeira, who was in the first year of his eight-year, $180 million contract. He has three years at $67.5 million left, clogging the payroll at a time when the Yanks are trying to get under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold.
Since a .948 debut season with the Yankees, Teixeira’s OPS is .846, .835, .807 and .609 in a 2013 marred by a torn sheath in his right wrist that needed surgery. He will be 34 in April.
Howard, 34 next month, signed a five-year, $125 million extension in April 2010 (the $25 million average is the most ever for a first baseman), two years before his previous deal expired (Gonzalez and Howard, like Pujols and Fielder, were all due to be free agents after the 2011 season). In the first two seasons of that extension, Howard has blown out his Achilles tendon and knee and still has three years at $85 million remaining.
So have teams wised up in reaction to seeing the fall of Howard, Pujols, etc.? Is there a better understanding the lack of athleticism at the position becomes more problematic for players in their 30s, and first base is a position in which you can find some level of production for fewer dollars?
Smarter clubs will try to sign first basemen they like earlier, like the Cardinals did with Craig (five years, $31 million) and Arizona did with Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $32 million). San Francisco’s Brandon Belt and Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman would seem ideal for such pacts.
Or it could just be that there is not high-end first base inventory at the moment to over-spend upon. Which might explain why the White Sox overspent in the view of the industry to land Cuban Jose Abreu on a six-year, $68 million pact – by far the most ever bestowed an international free agent. And why we really won’t find out if anything has changed until after the 2015 campaign when Chris Davis, a Scott Boras client, and Miguel Cabrera are due to be free agents.
Cabrera already should be at first, but is blocked by Fielder. So might Detroit save itself a mega-deal with Cabrera because it already foolishly went there with Fielder?