ORLANDO — Carlos Beltran is a great idea for the Red Sox — and he is not.
My colleague George A. King III reported last week that Boston is interested in signing the free agent. And why not? The Red Sox are in it to win it, and the idea of teaming arguably the two best postseason hitters of this era — Beltran and David Ortiz — is enticing.
But can the Red Sox actually team Beltran and Ortiz?
Beltran has chronic knee problems that scared away many teams after the 2011 campaign when he signed a two-year, $26 million deal with the Cardinals. Nevertheless, he started 269 regular-season games for St. Louis in the outfield. But he turns 37 in April. His defensive range has regressed. And Cardinals manager Mike Matheny did a good job of finding regular rest for Beltran.
Boston manager John Farrell could do the same, and Beltran could be saved some wear and tear by shifting to the small left field in front of the Green Monster.
But a person friendly with Beltran told me the switch-hitter has conceded he probably needs to go to the AL to DH more regularly, especially since he desires a three- or four-year contract.
The Red Sox are one of the last AL teams spending big on a DH. Which makes sense because Ortiz remains their best hitter. If the plan is to get Beltran, say, 30 games at DH, that becomes 30 games Ortiz isn’t playing, unless Boston uses Ortiz at first base. And they prefer to limit Ortiz at first to DH-less games in NL parks to limit abuse on Ortiz’s body, especially because Ortiz turns 38 next week.
Beltran could be signed to play mainly the outfield in 2014 with the idea of mixing in more DH at-bats later in the contract. But Ortiz will be entering the second season of his own two-year, $26 million pact. If he continues to perform similarly, his re-signing will be prioritized to assure he finishes his career a Red Sox. Thus, as long as Ortiz is around, there will be few DH at-bats for anyone else.
In theory, Boston could sign Beltran as a 130-game outfielder. But do they want to give a significant contract to a player whose games played must be limited, and does Beltran want to enlist for that? Plus, the Red Sox would be assuming a risk, for if Beltran’s knees worsen and there are no DH at-bats, he could become an expensive bench piece.
Still, Boston’s interest in someone like Beltran makes sense. For Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jarrod Saltalamacchia took 1,471 of Boston’s 3,141 lefty-swinging plate appearances (46.8 percent). Each had an OPS in the high-.800s vs. righty pitching, helping Boston generate an .818 OPS against righties — 30 points higher than any other club. It is a near certainty Saltalamacchia is leaving, and a fairly good chance Drew and Ellsbury depart, also.
Boston would still have Ortiz’s fierce lefty bat plus Mike Carp and Daniel Nava, who proved effective as supplementary pieces against righties. Jackie Bradley Jr., the internal option to replace Ellsbury, is left-handed, but young and unproven. Shane Victorino is a switch-hitter, but did not bat much from the left side late last year due to a hamstring injury.
So as they seek to defend their newly won title, the Red Sox will have some urgency to find lefty bats. Perhaps, Eric Chavez could be useful as a complementary, lefty-swinging partner at third for either Xander Bogaerts or Will Middlebrooks, or if free agent Mike Napoli is not retained, Boston could consider a lefty swinger at first: Does a Middlebrooks-for-Miami’s Logan Morrison deal make sense?
Or they could go for Beltran, which would either keep him away from the Yankees or, perhaps, force the Yankees to pay more to win for him. With the Yanks, Beltran could play right at the Stadium — which, like Fenway’s left field, is a smaller area to defend than usual. He also could get plenty of DH at-bats, particularly against righties with Derek Jeter taking on the majority DH role vs. southpaws.
But keep in mind Beltran was willing to give the Yankees a roughly $20 million discount from the $119 million deal he signed with the Mets following the 2004 campaign. But the Yankees decided to allocate their big money for Randy Johnson and were worried if Beltran was temperamentally right for New York. They ignored Beltran again after the 2011 season because of concerns about his knees.
This time around Beltran does not seem in discount mode plus he has two more years of erosion on those knees. A three-year, $45 million deal is realistic — maybe more. Meanwhile, the Yankees are counting pennies to stay under the $189 million luxury tax threshold. And, considering how 2013 went, they are more concerned about age/injury than ever.
So The Rivals both have reasons why Beltran fits, and reasons why he does not. It provides the backdrop to one of the most important free agents available.