It’s fun to wonder, if Andy Dalton could throw for 325 yards and five touchdowns and beat the Jets by 40, then what’s Drew Brees going to do to them? Even Rex Ryan played along, throwing out 700 yards as a sarcastic guess.
But the NFL doesn’t necessarily work that way. The associative and commutative properties of math don’t always apply from week to week. If they did, Tom Brady would have destroyed the Jets twice, and instead they largely shut him down in going 1-1.
To say Brees easily will pick apart the Jets secondary, end of story, is to oversimplify. It ignores important questions such as: Can the Jets’ young, strong defensive linemen get some hits on Brees? Can the Jets run the ball the way they did against the Pats, thus keeping the ball away from Brees? What about the key injuries on both sides? How much pride will the Jets show at home off a 40-point road loss?
The spread is rather small, but the feeling here is this will be a tight game. The Saints are 2-1 on the road, winning by 2 and 8 and losing by 3. Jets are 3-1 at home, winning by 1, 7, 3 and losing by 13.
The pick: Jets +6.
PANTHERS (-7¹/₂) over Falcons: Bet you didn’t think at the beginning of the season you’d see this line! But it’s deserved, and the Falcons will have tough going against the Panthers’ third-in-the-NFL defense. Plus, the Panthers have the extra rest off the Thursday-nighter, and those teams are 8-4 against the spread.
COWBOYS (-10) over Vikings: Boys have lost some barn burners to high-scoring teams such as the Broncos and Lions. But they should be able to hammer a team such as the Vikings that is bad on both sides of the ball right now.
Titans (-3) over RAMS: Getting a team off a bye versus one that played Monday night. This is Jeff Fisher against his former team, but have a feeling the near miss versus Seahawks is the best the Rams may do for a while.
Chiefs (-3) over BILLS: Chiefs have won their three road games by 26, 10 and 9 points. Bills have had some nice upsets at home in recent years, but have some key players on the iffy list including Thad Lewis, Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson.
Chargers (-1) over REDSKINS: Thought of some new offensive nicknames for the Redskins after they lost a 26¹/₂-point lead (in the spread) in the final 16 minutes at Denver, blowing the Lock of the Week. Can’t print any of them in a family newspaper, though.
RAIDERS (-2¹/₂) over Eagles: Raiders are 3-1 at home and have held Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger under 20 points. Not terribly worried about their defense against Nick Foles, who is back under center in Chip Kelly’s revolving door of QBs.
Buccaneers (+16¹/₂) over SEAHAWKS: Really? Put aside that it’s the Bucs, if you can, and you get the Thursday-night trend team versus one that played on the road on Monday night. Bucs are 0-7, but have lost by an average of only nine points.
Ravens (-2¹/₂) over BROWNS: These are not the same Ravens who won the Super Bowl, we know, but Joe Flacco is 11-0 lifetime versus the Browns and should be able to do this one by rote.
PATRIOTS (-6¹/₂) over Steelers: Good get of 330-pound Isaac Sopoaga from the Eagles helps the Patriots replace the heft of Vince Wilfork in the middle of their defensive line.
Colts (-2¹/₂) over TEXANS: Respect for Case Keenum, the Houston product who had a fine debut in a near-upset in KC before the bye. Just see the Colts as one of the class teams of the AFC.
MONDAY NIGHT
PACKERS (-10¹/₂) over Bears: Little much to be laying to the Bears, but they will be without their leaders on both sides (Jay Cutler and Lance Briggs). Aaron Rodgers can still put up the points in a hurry.
BEST BETS: Raiders, Cowboys, Chiefs.
LAST WEEK: 7-6 overall; 1-2 Best Bets.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Raiders (Locks 3-5).
THURSDAY NIGHT: Bengals